Cantonese Cat used his Oct. 28 video to dig deeper into Dogecoin’s market structure, arguing that the meme coin is nearing the end of a multi-year accumulation phase — and that the recent washout was a feature, not a bug, of that process. While he declined to publish numerical price targets in the video, he stated that DOGE’s setup is maturing in line with broader “risk-on” signals, with a known lag versus Ethereum historically preceding Dogecoin’s larger moves.
When will Dogecoin rally again?
He was explicit about the structure. “If you just look at Doge, you’ll see how […] Doge has been cupping here for almost four and a half years now […] it’s just building a big giant base.” In his readthe rounded bottom is the defining pattern of this cycle for DOGE, and it remains intact despite recent volatility.
He described the sharp decline two weeks ago as necessary positioning and not a trend break: “You’ve just had a great deleveraging. […] I’m not going to look at a lower low and think the trend is broken […] As far as I’m concerned, this is a very healthy reduction in debt before the next step up.” He highlighted “a big giant fuse” and “a lot of demand down below,” pointing to what he sees as resilient grassroots support.
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Timing, and not objectives, was key. He reiterated that Dogecoin typically follows Ethereum with a lag once ETH clears its own major resistance bands. “Every time we get closer to the end of the rounded bottom […] that is when Ethereum breaks above the resistance zone and goes a lot higher. So Doge is working with Ethereum,” he said, adding: “There is a delay. I would say the lag is probably a few months between Ethereum’s breakup and Doge finally breaking above this rounded bottom and moving up.”
He made a similar observation using risk proxies, noting that DOGE moves historically lag small-cap-led risk cycles by several months, although he cautioned that the exact interval can vary. He added via X: “DOGE continues to lag behind IWM [iShares Russell 2000 ETF] highest outbreak ever with about 2 to 4 months before it starts.”
Cantonese Cat also pushed back on the view that a series of lower lows automatically invalidates the DOGE setup, arguing that in previous cycles this occurred just before major rallies. “A lot of people look at this: ‘that’s a lower low.’ […] the cycle is over.” Well, that’s not how it works. That’s a lower low right there. Before you know it, it just went a lot higher,” he said, linking the observation to the current “healthy deleveraging” and the continued existence of the rounded bottom structure.
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While the video provided the structural blueprint, his same-day post on “I realize it’s stupid to ask DOGE for $2 or $4 when the price is 20 cents. If I were smart like others, I should just ask DOGE for $2 or $4 when the price is $2 or $4.” The comment is consistent with his previous price predictions.
In the video update, the analyst instead highlighted the order he expects will matter: ETH strength first, then DOGE follow-through, with size determined by how far the broader risk cycle runs once momentum turns.
At the time of writing, DOGE was trading at $0.20.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com