It seems that the market still cannot catch its breath.
In the first half of 2025, the tariff war dominated the headlines. The lead-up to the “Liberation Day” FUD caused a sharp sell-off in the first quarter, causing the TOTAL crypto market capitalization to drop by 18%. That’s a staggering $500 billion outflow.
As we entered the second half, the fourth quarter started with a similar FUD. Bitcoins actually [BTC] is down 25% year to date, following Trump’s tariff wars in early October. Now it seems that a new war is already setting the tone for the first quarter of 2026.
The silver rally is heating up, increasing pressure on the Bitcoin markets
The market recent momentum has been quite one-sided.
In support of this, legacy assets clearly show the shift. Gold, silver and platinum are all rising together and reaching new highs. Take silver for example: it is up a whopping 70% in the fourth quarter, now at an all-time high of $79/oz.
This wave has undoubtedly drained capital from Bitcoin. However, it is not just a random deviation. It seems that the market is entering a full-blown ‘metal war’, with China once again taking center stage.
Source: TradingView (SILVER/USDT)
On January 1, China’s export restrictions on silver will come into action.
Why it matters – With China controlling 60 to 70% of global supply, this move could shake up the market, creating a classic supply-demand imbalance. Especially after silver demand rose to 1.24 billion ounces in 2025.
In this context, the recent rise in silver prices is starting to make sense. However, is this just the beginning? If so, where does that leave Bitcoin, which is already seeing a lack of institutional interest despite the 25% “dip” in the fourth quarter?
Institutions favor silver, leaving BTC in the dust
It appears that American investors are at the forefront of this scheme.
On chain, Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) continues to sink deeper into the red, indicating a clear lack of buying behavior from US investors. Meanwhile, a outflow-heavy ETF also shows a similar trend.
On the contrary, institutional demand for silver has soared. Analysts to believe that 50-60% of all silver stocks are now held by institutional heavyweights. In this setup, China’s ban only gives buyers more incentive to stock up.
Source: TradingView (HL/USD)
Hecla mining [HL]the largest American silver mine, also shows this trend.
Technically, HL stock is on the rise, up 170% in the last two quarters. More than 66% were added in the fourth quarter alone, increasing the market cap from $320 billion to $1.2 trillion at the time of writing. That’s a clear sign of strong demand.
So now that the Chinese ban is tightening supply, metals are taking the lead and mining companies like Hecla are following the rally. On the contrary, Bitcoin remains stuck, with this ‘metal war’ setting a bearish tone for BTC heading into 2026.
Final thoughts
- Institutional demand is flowing into silver, with 50-60% of the supply held by heavyweights.
- HL shares have risen 170% in two quarters as Chinese export controls are expected to tighten supply.