Cardano started November with slightly bearish momentum and faced resistance challenges, mainly from short-term holders. As these STHs grapple with uncertainty about ADA’s next direction, the network is seeing growing dominance from long-term owners, which builds trust. Given this increase, there is a higher chance of a significant shift in the price of ADA by the weekend.
The number of long-term holders exceeds 2.7 million
After a robust 11% gain in October, Cardano traders are preparing for potential volatility in November. This altcoin, which recently reached its highest price since August, has turned heads and posted further gains in the fourth quarter.
However, insights from Cardano’s historical trend suggest that ADA price will undergo a small downward correction this month. Of the past five years, only one November, and specifically three years earlier, ended with an increase of 85%. Such news leaves ADA traders with a mixed choice of expectations for November: a potential breakout above $0.3 per token or bearish momentum towards $0.25.
Data from IntoTheBlock indicates rising confidence among ADA holders. Recent months have seen a notable increase in long-term ADA price confidence, with LTH addresses peaking at a whopping 2.7 million. Interestingly, the number of addresses with ADA for less than a year has seen a notable decline, indicating a clear change in the hodling mentality.
Moreover, despite a surge in transaction volume, network value has recently witnessed a significant decline. The NVT ratio, which measures the value of the network versus transaction volume, fell from an October high of 6.12 to a low of 3.18, indicating a reduction in market capitalization.
Nevertheless, transaction volume has continued to go from strength to strength during this period. This increasing activity could indicate a possible upward price correction in the coming days.
What’s next for the ADA award?
ADA continues to trade within the resistance zone around $0.3. However, increasing selling pressure near $0.3 prevents ADA price from initiating a breakout moment. The declining 20-day EMA, with the RSI trading below the midline, indicates a small upside for the bears. At the time of writing, ADA price is trading at $0.29 and is down over 0.85% in the last 24 hours.
Should the ADA price rise again around $0.28, the bulls will once again try to push the price past the immediate resistance at $0.3. If this is achieved successfully, it could signal the start of a solid recovery targeting $0.33, then $0.38.
On the bearish side, the bears are ready to counter any bullish trend. Their goal will be to bring the price below the 100-day EMA. Such action could indicate that ADA price could continue to fluctuate within the bearish range of $0.22-0.25. However, bulls are expected to strongly defend any decline below that and trigger aggressive buying.