- Harris now leads the Polymarket odds at 50%, while Trump is close behind at 49%.
- Trump’s WLF project is facing criticism, adding uncertainty to his presidential chances.
With just two months to go until the US presidential election, the latest Polymarket odds show Vice President Kamala Harris with a narrow lead. According to the same report, she has a 50% chance of winning the election, compared to Donald Trump’s 49%.
While this is not a numerically significant margin, it is still a crucial margin. Especially since VP Harris has followed the former president at Polymarket for a long time.
Source: Polymarkt
Presidential debate and its impact
For days, Trump led Polymarket’s chances. However, on September 10, things took a surprising turn when he and Harris faced off in their first presidential debate.
The debate covered various topics, from the economy to immigration. However, cryptocurrencies in particular were largely absent from any discussion. Despite much anticipation, neither candidate delved into the topic, leaving many in the crypto community waiting for clarity on their positions.
Beyond that, there seemed to be a general consensus that Trump’s debate performance fell short of expectations. In fact, data from blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket revealed that 99% of voters chose Harris as the debate winner.
Source: Polymarkt
For those who don’t know, prior to the debate, Trump led with 53% of the expected votes, while Harris trailed with 45%.
Immediately after the debate, however, the race tightened considerably, with both candidates neck-and-neck with 49% each.
Source: i/o/X
Trump’s quest to top the prediction polls
In light of his declining presidential chances, Trump turned to X (formerly Twitter) on September 12 to announce that it would go live on the platform on September 16. In the video, he revealed plans to launch World Liberty Financial (WLF) – a project led by his sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump.
He said:
“We embrace the future with crypto and leave the slow and outdated big banks behind.”
Unfortunately, the response to this plan was not as appreciated as many initially expected. In fact, the response from many in the crypto community has also been lukewarm.
For example, Colin Talks Crypto went to X and suggested:
Source: Colin talks about Crypto/X
Trump’s crypto engagement so far
While details remain vague, Trump has previously hinted that World Liberty Financial will be a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform for lending and lending.
However, this is just the latest step in its pivot towards cryptos over the past year and a half. His involvement in the crypto community has been notable, including participating in Bitcoin conferences, accepting crypto donations, hosting NFT-themed dinners, and launching Bitcoin-related merchandise.
These activities have contributed to why many in the crypto world continue to support him as US President. Despite his poor debate performance.
What awaits us?
There is a strong possibility that Trump could regain the top spot on the Polymarket charts once WLF goes live.
However, despite Trump’s strong commitment to cryptocurrencies, recent criticism of the WLF initiative has raised concerns. Especially about possible conflicts of interest if he wins another term.
In fact, even Nick Cartera partner at Castle Island Ventures and Trump supporter, has called the project a “big mistake.”