Bitcoin’s price was rejected at December highs of $94,000 to $96,000, capping the recovery in January. This recovery, following the recovery in early 2026, was marked by strong institutional inflows of more than $1 billion. These inflows drove the price of BTC from $87.5k to $94.7k.
However, at the time of writing, bulls had not managed to break out of December’s sideways structure.
In reality, Bitcoin had fallen to $90,000, driven by a liquidity chase. According to trader Cryp Nuevo’s projections, an extended correction to the lows of $80,000 could also be feasible.
Source: Cryp Nuevo/X
Analysts’ views on BTC’s recovery
While such prospects would delay the likelihood of a breakthrough to $100,000, institutional players may increasingly position themselves on the psychological front.
According to Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC markets at Wintermute, the recent positioning marked a “relief rally in the first quarter.” He declared,
“The bid for topside continues, with another $13 million paid for 27FEB $100k calls and 30JAN $98k calls. New positioning builds into the new year, with the direction of travel prices in the first quarter a relief rally.”
Source: Jake Ostrovskis/X
Put another way, there seemed to be a renewed expectation of a bullish breakout (demand for calls) to $98,000-$100,000 in January or February.
Other analysts predict a bullish recovery based on historical and correlation data.
For example, Matt Mena, a Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, told AMBCrypto that 2026 will likely be positive given the dismal results in 2025. He said:
“Historically, Bitcoin has never recorded two consecutive years in the last fifteen years.”
For him, BTC could become the best-performing asset this year after lagging behind the top assets in 2025. He added:
“Additionally, after a year in which crypto is one of the worst performing assets, crypto is typically the best performing asset in the following year – a pattern we saw in 2014 and 2015, 2018 and 2019, and in 2022 and 2023.”
For his part, Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR crypto exchange, foresees continued capital inflows into BTC if the gold and silver rallies completely cool off. According to him, BTC could rise to $130,000 in the first quarter of 2026, with the current consolidation acting as a potential springboard.
“Bitcoin’s current sideways move against the backdrop of record gains in gold and silver resembles a ‘calm before the storm’, typically followed by a broader rally in the crypto market.”
Chance to win $100,000 back
Here it is worth pointing out that the market has higher expectations expectations of recovering $100,000 in March and April, compared to January. This also seemed to be in line with Ostrovskis’ insights into Options.
Source: Kalshi
Some of the most important bullish catalysts would be the passage of crypto law and a “reasonable stock market,” according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. On the contrary, blowouts like the October 10 crash could dent the positive outlook for 2026.
Final thoughts
- According to some analysts, a possible breakout of BTC’s price range to $100,000 could occur by the end of January or February.
- Others believe BTC could hit an all-time high of $130,000 in the first quarter of 2026.