- Ethereum is down 12% this week, reflecting the broader struggle as altcoins suffer double-digit losses.
- The recovery now depends more than ever on a broader market recovery.
Ethereum[ETH] has lost more than half of its post-election gains and is now locked in a high-stakes tug-of-war.
With Bitcoin consolidation holding back any major breakout, investors are playing it safe. Given the current landscape, is it time to err on the side of caution or seize the opportunity?
The scales are tipped in favor of…
Traditional Bitcoin[BTC] stagnation heralded the start of an altcoin season – but not this time. Altcoins are struggling to gain traction, with 70% of the top 10 high caps (excluding stablecoins) suffering double-digit losses in just a week.
Ethereum hasn’t escaped the downturn either, with a weekly decline of 12%, partly due to strong US economic data. The ETH/BTC pair is hitting a daily low, making ETH’s recovery appear tied to a broader market recovery.
But the pressure doesn’t stop there. Whales are feeling the heat and dumping 10,070 ETH at $3,280, making a loss of $1 million. As a result, ETH fell 1.15% and stood at $3,227 at the time of writing. However, the stakes are higher than ever.
If capitulation continues, ETH could drop to $3,169. At this level, 5.46 million addresses were purchased with 5.61 million ETH at that price.
What these HODLers do next will be crucial to ETH’s next step. It’s a high-stakes gamble: HODL and wait for a market recovery, or cash out before another crash happens.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Will Ethereum whales take the risk?
The decision involves a mix of psychology and data. Statistically, ETH is still 33% above post-election levels, a price that has served as strong support in the past.
Furthermore, the futures markets are buzzing, with derivatives volume rising 105% and Open Interest (OI) rising 2%.
Source: Coinglass
But there is more at play: Investors are counting on a repeat of the Q4 cycle, hoping for a new ‘Trump pump’. The psychological momentum is undoubtedly there, but will it be enough? According to AMBCrypto, a clear ‘Yes’ is still far away.
Read Ethereum’s [ETH] Price forecast 2025–2026
Why the uncertainty? Major players are losing confidence, which could deplete FOMO, fueling current market optimism. Retail and institutional Capital has yet to flow back and fear is high.
Unlike the last Trump rally, which sent Ethereum soaring to $4,000, a similar response feels increasingly unlikely this time around. Even with the Trump pump, it may not be enough to spark a strong recovery for Ethereum.
In short, caution is crucial right now. Ethereum’s recovery is closely tied to the broader market recovery. The optimism surrounding the potential for a Trump pump is tempting, but it’s crucial not to get carried away by the “hype.”