Bitcoin has struggled to build momentum around the $90,000 level, yet at least one headline-making buyer appears to be leaning the opposite way.
Blockstream CEO Adam Back said on
According to Back:
The Bitfinex Whale [was] initial [buying] 300 BTC/day, but now up to 450 BTC around $90,000. [This is] same as the [total] number of Bitcoins mined per day. About $470/second all day.
On paper, a persistent buyer of that size can in principle offset increasing new supply, even if only at the margin and only as long as the flow continues.
The bigger question, however, is whether these big buyers can change the character of a market that has struggled to sustain rallies of late, with participants repeatedly taking quick profits or parlaying losses into recoveries.
A whale-sized bid meets a whale-sized skepticism
It is striking that the story of Bitfinex buying whales is not an isolated one.
Facts van Santiment showed that Bitcoin “whales and sharks” continued to accumulate despite weak sentiment, with wallets between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin adding 36,322 BTC over the past nine days. This represents an increase of 0.27% of their collective holdings.
That kind of absorption can be important in a market where marginal flows often rule the roost, especially when the price is near a commonly viewed strike level.
Accumulation data can be deceptively reassuring, however, because it does not automatically reveal the price levels at which holders become sellers, nor whether the broader market has sufficient depth to transport prices through the overhead supply.
This is why Bitfinex’s bid, if real and sustained, could be more interesting as a stabilizing force than as a directional prophecy.
This is because a steady buyer can delay panic and reduce the likelihood of disorderly dips, without necessarily creating the kind of demand surge that sends a market into a new trend.
Bitcoin’s ‘Failed Breakout’ map shows the problem
In the latest Week On-Chain reportAnalytics firm Glassnode argued that Bitcoin is in a moderate bear phase, bounded by specific levels related to cost basis behavior.
The firm identified the True Market Mean around $81,100 as downside support and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis around $98,400 as upside resistance.
That higher band is important because that is where the “break-even offer” of recent buyers is becoming increasingly active. In practice, this means that rallies in the area can trigger selling pressure rather than unlocking the trend’s upward momentum, as holders who bought near the highs use strength to move closer to a flat level.
This is further compounded by the fact that the market has not yet fully recovered from the previous distribution.
According to the company, the recent rally has “partially filled” the so-called ‘air gap’ between approximately $93,000 and $98,000. This was a sign that the supply previously held by BTC’s top buyers had been redistributed to newer participants.
Above the $100,000 mark, however, Glassnode still saw a “wide and dense” supply zone that has gradually developed into a cohort of long-term holders.
This unresolved overhang will likely limit attempts above both $98,400 and $100,000 unless demand accelerates in a meaningful and sustainable manner.
Meanwhile, this same friction is showing up in the profit and loss behavior of Bitcoin holders.
Glassnode highlighted that realized losses were dominated by the 3 to 6 month cohort, with additional contributions from 6 to 12 month holders. The pattern is associated with ‘pain-driven’ selling by investors who have accumulated above $110,000 and are now exiting as the price revisits their entry range.
On the profit side, the company saw an increase in realizations for the cohort with profit margins from 0% to 20%, which was consistent with break-even sellers and swing traders booking small profits rather than committing to expansion.
In short, the on-chain picture explains why Bitcoin’s rebounds feel heavy even as conditions on the ground improve.
Derivatives consider $90,000 a fault line
This is where the Bitfinex whale story intersects with microstructure.
Glassnode noted that dealer gamma positioning has moved lower, with buyers bidding for downside protection, leaving dealers with a short range below $90,000 and a long range above that strike.
The implication is asymmetrical. Below $90,000, hedging flows can amplify downside moves. Above $90,000, dealer positioning can dampen follow-through, making the level a friction point rather than a launching pad.
If a large, stable spot buyer does indeed ramp up activity around $90,000, that could be disproportionately important, not because it guarantees upside potential, but because it could reduce the chance of entering the “short gamma” zone, where moves can accelerate.
Outside of whale watching, Glassnode described a derivatives market that looks disengaged. It called futures participation a “ghost town,” noting that seven-day futures volume has shrunk and price movements have occurred without meaningful volume expansion.
The company also flagged open interest rate adjustments without corresponding trading volume, a pattern consistent with churn and risk recycling rather than new leverage coming into the system.
Options markets now price risk mainly at the front end. Glassnode said one-week implied volatility rose more than 13 volatility points following a macro and geopolitical sell-off, while three-month volatility rose only about 2 points and six-month volatility barely moved.
On Bitfinex itself, leverage positioning offers a different lens.
According to Tradingview factsThe number of bullish Bitcoin bets using borrowed money on the exchange, known as margin long positions, has declined. On an annual basis, the number fell from a peak of 72,000 to approximately 70,639 Bitcoin.
It then rose slightly to around 71,000 Bitcoin at the time of writing, indicating renewed dip buying during the slide. However, the broader trend over the past month remains downward.
That’s important because these margin long positions have historically functioned as a contrarian indicator in previous cycles, typically peaking when the market was struggling and then drying up as a new uptrend begins.
What a sustained whale bid can and cannot do
Taking all of the above into account, the most disciplined way to think about the whale bid is to use regimes rather than narratives.
In a base case, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within Glassnode’s cost basis range, supported above around $81,100, but struggles to hold bids up to around $98,400 and into the supply surplus above $100,000.
In that environment, sustained bidding for whales may help keep the dips orderly, but it will not automatically break out the market unless spot market participation expands beyond selective absorption.
In a bull case, demand accelerates enough to regain and hold $98,400, forcing the market to absorb the tight supply zone above $100,000 rather than repeatedly distributing into it.
For that to happen, the Bitcoin market would likely need to see more sustained accumulation, and derivatives volume would need to re-enter the sector in a way that supports trend formation rather than a small liquidity boost.
In a bear case, the price of BTC falls below $90,000 and cannot recover quickly, putting the market in a zone where dealers are short range and hedging flows can reinforce the downtrend.
In that scenario, the presence of the whale becomes a key variable. If the bid continues, it could weaken the move. If this fades, the market risks sliding back into deeper cost-based support.
