- The lateral consolidation of Bitcoin underlined carefully optimism in long -term holders
- Could this quiet stack phase be the calmness for the next big outbreak?
Bitcoin [BTC]seemed to be stuck at the moment of the press in a “neutral” zone, not falling apart, but also not breaking out. And the mood? Quite vulnerable. The market has encouraged assumptions – perhaps the FED has been bent, perhaps the geopolitical tensions fade. All very “maybe.”
In addition, Bitcoin’s Open Interest (OI) was 3.4%, indicating that new leverage can crawl back. It is a daring move, especially in view of the fact that only June saw two important long liquidations that derailed for real recovery attempts.
But what if this new positioning is not only blind speculation? A trader With a perfect trade record of 29-from-29, just opened a $ 29 million on BTC. Could they see something that the rest of the market has not yet priced?
FED’s subtle shift is sparking ‘careful optimism’
We are in the mid -2025 and the Fed has not even lowered the rates.
As ambcrypto emphasized, the recent FOMC meeting was holding on to a no-cut attitude, just like the markets priced. This resulted in minimal volatility, whereby BTC only dropped 0.24% that day.
And yet, Jerome Powell comments wore a subtle but important message. The FED will remain open later this year for reducing rates. That is an important signal for both traders and investors.
Look back to Q4 2024. Bitcoin rose past $ 100k and hit $ 108k in December, Before you immerse $ 89k. BTC bounced back strongly and collected with 22% to reach a new highlight of $ 109k in January.
This rally was not random. Instead, it followed the three back-to-back rate reductions of the Fed in that period closely. These cuts injected liquidity and fed risk-on sentiment, which fueles Bitcoin’s breakout in the charts.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Now the market can look at a repeat scenario. Bitcoin’s current lateral action can keep the expectation of potential relaxation in H2 2025 healthy.
Unclean intake Seemed to strengthen this vision and indicates that Bitcoin could introduce one of the most important accumulative phases – a strong basis for the next big rally.
Bitcoin’s consolidation supported by the demand of a strong holder
A new glass node report Spotlight a clear decoupling between the price of Bitcoin and what happened on the chain. Since the beginning of 2025, daily transactions have cooled down, up to 320k – 500k from a 734K peak in 2024.
Yet the value transfer is still going strong. The Bitcoin network has moved around $ 7.5 billion a day, with each transaction on average $ 36.2k – a sign that large players remain active.
In fact, transactions of more than $ 100k form a huge 89% of the total volume, far above from 66% in the end of 2022. On the contrary, smaller transfers can quickly blur.
Source: Glassnode
This mix of low transaction times and high volumes makes it fairly clear-large players work the show on-chain. To finish it, Cryptoquant -Data Emphasizes that BTC entry into a binance of both whales and retailing can be at cyclical lows.
Together, these trends can suggest that smart money accumulates or is being brought by volatility, “buying in the fear” while the tariff reduction expectations builds up.
That is why $ 110k can be the start, not the top of Bitcoin’s breakout of 2025.