- Retail demand for BTC fell to a three-year low despite the recent rally.
- Bearish sentiment in the derivatives market could derail the recent recovery.
Bitcoin [BTC] has yet to attract retail demand, despite doubling from last year to a record high of $73,000 in March 2024.
According to CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, BTC question from the retail class has reached a three-year low.
Source: CryptoQuant
The metric tracks changes in BTC transfer volume under $10,000 over a 30-day period. It reached a low in 2024 of around -20%, last seen in 2021.
Some market observers believe this meant that the retail class was sidelined and could delay the expected parabolic BTC run.
Based on the chart, the 2021 cycle high of $69,000 coincided with BTC Retail Investor rising above 15%.
A similar pattern emerged during the early 2024 rally after BTC ETFs entered the market. Therefore, the lack of retail interest was a sore concern for Bitcoin bulls expecting an explosive rally.
Could the expected global easing and increase in liquidity at the end of 2024 drive retail investors back?
Perhaps that could be a catalyst for retail, according to market analyst Coin Trader Nik.
Nik claimed that ETF powered the first half of 2024, but the second half will be determined by global liquidity.
‘The second half will be driven by global liquidity expansion. ‘Mass retail’ arrives as $BTC breaks through $100,000
Source:
After a disinflationary trend of the past two months, over 90% of interest rate traders expected an interest rate cut in September.
If the Fed starts cutting rates, it would fuel risky assets, including Bitcoin. Some central banks have already initiated interest rate cuts, paving the way for a global liquidity injection.
Given the above macro outlook, the market foresees a potential rise in BTC to $80,000 – $100,000. Recent facts The prediction market predicted a greater than 20% chance that BTC will reach $100,000 by the end of 2024.
The odds of crossing the $80,000 level were up 57%, further reinforcing BTC’s bullish outlook.
In fact, Quinn Thompson of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital projected a bold $100,000 per BTC by November 2024.
All the above bullish objectives are based on Trump winning the US presidential election.
Read Bitcoins [BTC] Price prediction 2024-25
Meanwhile, BTC rose 11% on a weekly basis but was trading below $64K at the time of writing.
The bearish sentiment in the derivatives market, as evidenced by the negative Taker Buy Sell Ratio, indicated that the recovery above $60K could stall further into the weekend.
Source: CryptoQuant