According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin A bear market may have been in place for two months after some of its indicators turned bearish in early November.
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Moreno pointed out that the price drop below the one-year moving average was the clearest technical confirmation, and he used that signal to argue that a lower trading margin may be in store.
Bitcoin technical signals, market mood
Moreno said a likely bottom could be near the realized price, which he placed in the $56,000-$60,000 range. That would represent a drop of about 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high – a drop that is big, but smaller than previous crashes that reached 70% or 80%.
The market momentum is moderate. Bitcoin started 2025 around $93,000, peaked at around $126,050 in October and ended the year lower than where it started, according to CoinGecko. Based on available data, trading hovered around $88,920 on Friday.
Derivatives are cautious about the expiration date
Bitcoin had a range of $1.85 billion during the period between $87,000 and $89,000. options was nearing its expiration date. Reports show derivatives volume fell 39% while open interest remained flat, a mix that suggests hesitation rather than aggressive positioning by traders.
Technical measures show price compression near support, and traders are keeping a close eye on expiration as a bigger move could follow as those contracts unwind. Volatility has been lower than some previous selloffs, and that has made the price action tighter than many expected.
Institutional accumulation and the missing shock
Moreno and others note that the environment feels structurally different. Major institutional players and regulated ETFs buy more regularly, and these flows are not known to panic sell.
That steady demand has helped prevent the kind of back-to-back failures we saw in 2022, when Terra, Celsius and FTX collapsed and widened market losses. Since these major shocks have not happened this time, the decline seems more controlled, even if prices fall.
Outlook depends on macros and regulations
Some analysts still predict that 2026 could bring new highs, citing expected US interest rate cuts and a friendlier policy stance in Washington. At the same time, observers are watching to see whether Bitcoin’s closer ties to U.S. stocks hold as macro and regulatory decisions are made.
If the correlation becomes weaker, crypto can follow its own course course. If the price remains strong, Bitcoin’s path could largely be determined by broader market moves rather than crypto-specific flows.
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What traders will look at
Based on the reports and Moreno’s view, the key points to watch are the one-year moving average, the realized price levels around $56,000-$60,000, the outcome of options expiresand whether institutional buyers continue to make steady purchases.
The price action has been calmer than in some past crises, but that calm has masked real downside risk. Analysts and traders are divided; some expect a return to growth next year, while others are preparing for lower prices before a sustainable recovery occurs.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView