Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin Nearing the End of its Bull Run?
No, the data shows signs that there is more room to grow.
Could Negative Funding Rates Predict the Next Bitcoin Rally?
Recent history shows that Bitcoin often rises after funding rates turn negative.
97% of Bitcoin [BTC] the offering was profitable, and short-term holders (STHs) were in the spotlight. While prices may seem high, data on the chain showed the market may have more room to grow.
So is this the beginning of the end… or just the beginning of the final push?
The signs are striking
The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) measure stood at +0.52 at the time of writing, a level that typically marks the transition from optimism to outright euphoria.
In previous cycles, such as 2017 and 2021, this zone has been associated with high bullish sentiment… and large price increases.
Source: CryptoQuant
With 97% of Bitcoin supply making a profit, investor confidence remained high. But this also means that the market is becoming crowded, and any further upturns will first require some consolidation to remain sustainable.
New whales are taking over
STHs now make up 44% of Bitcoin’s realized limit, an all-time high. This shift shows that LTHs are making profits while new entrants enter the market with serious purchasing power.
Source: CryptoQuant
Normally, this transfer of control occurs near the tail end of a bull run. But this time it could be different.
Strong inflows from ETFs, growing liquidity from stablecoins and institutional buyers are absorbing the selling pressure, creating a steadier kind of euphoria.
The next big sign to watch? A decline in STH dominance could trigger a new wave of long-term accumulation.
The spark behind big rallies
Here’s where things get interesting.
Whenever funding rates on Binance go negative, Bitcoin tends to recover – and the pattern repeats. Negative financing typically shows traders are bearish, creating perfect conditions for a contrarian rally.
Source: CryptoQuant
The last few times this happened – in October 2023, September 2024, and April 2025 – BTC quickly skyrocketed from $28,000 to $73,000, $57,000 to $108,000, and $95,000 to $123,000, respectively.
With financing rates falling again and prices stabilizing around $115,000, the next big move could surprise the bears again.