Ethereum is trading with renewed vigor after breaking above the $3,300 level and briefly rising towards $3,400, signaling a possible shift in short-term momentum. However, despite this recovery, bullish conviction remains fragile. Many analysts continue to warn that the broader trend is still bearish, highlighting that Ethereum has not yet regained the structural levels needed to confirm a macro reversal.
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Still, one signal has attracted a lot of attention: according to new data from Lookonchain, a large whale known as BitcoinOG has doubled its long position in Ethereum. This trader is widely recognized as the whale who successfully shorted Bitcoin during the October 10 market crash, a move that earned him significant profits and increased his reputation in the on-chain analytics community.
Instead of taking profits after ETH’s recent rise, he has added to his long position – an unusually aggressive stance at a time when most traders remain cautious.
His renewed commitment raises questions about whether smart money is quietly positioning itself for bigger upside, even as broader sentiment remains skeptical. If the momentum continues, Ethereum may be preparing for a much more significant move than the market currently expects.
Whale positioning and FOMC impact
According to Lookonchain, the whale known as BitcoinOG has now expanded his position to 85,001 ETH, valued at approximately $280 million, and currently sitting on over $16 million in unrealized gains. Such aggressive accumulation during a period of widespread caution signals a notable disconnect between retail sentiment and whale behavior.
When a trader with a proven track record positions it heavily on the long side, it often reflects a strategic belief that market conditions could quickly change in favor of higher prices.
However, this positioning is unfolding just as the market approaches a crucial macro event: the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates could dramatically impact liquidity, risk appetite, and short-term volatility for all risky assets, including Ethereum.
A rate cut could inject optimism into the market by weakening the US dollar and improving overall liquidity conditions. Conversely, a hawkish tone or smaller-than-expected policy adjustment could trigger a sell-the-news response, especially as ETH approaches resistance.
For Ethereum, whale accumulation combined with macro uncertainty creates a high-stakes environment. If liquidity increases post-FOMC, ETH could gain strength. If that is not the case, even strong whale positions could come under pressure in the short term.
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ETH tests breakout strength before major resistance
Ethereum’s 4-hour chart shows a decisive momentum shift, with ETH rising firmly above the $3,300 level after a clear breakout from the multi-week downtrend. This move marks one of the strongest bullish impulses since early November, supported by rising volume and a clear retracement of the 50 EMA and 100 EMA.
The 200 EMA (red), which previously acted as dynamic resistance during the decline, has now been tested and is starting to level off – often an early indication that bearish momentum is losing its dominance.
However, ETH is now hovering directly below a critical resistance zone around $3,380-$3,420, a level where sellers previously aggressively intervened. The current consolidation is just below this zone reveals an undecided market: bulls attempt to establish acceptance above $3,300 while it is bears defend the next layer of resistance.
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If buyers manage to convert $3,320 into solid support, the path to $3,500 becomes more feasible, especially if broader market sentiment improves. Conversely, a rejection from the $3,400 area could trigger a pullback to $3,200-$3,250 in the near term, with moving averages now stacked as layered support.
Featured image of ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com