Leverage is quietly cementing itself as Bitcoin’s main driver [BTC] momentum. The recent breakout caused an aggressive short squeeze, forcing traders to unwind bearish positions extensively.
According to Glassnode, this was the largest short liquidation event in the top 500 cryptocurrencies since October 10, 2025.
On the map, liquidation peaks closely aligns with Bitcoin’s push for local highs.
Source: Glassnode
Traders wiped out millions of short positions in a short period of time, and forced buybacks drove the price higher, adding to the upward pressure.
This behavior has been on the rise since late 2025, but the intensity increased as Bitcoin held higher levels instead of retreating.
If current liquidations continue, Bitcoin could expand into the $100,000-$105,000 zone on momentum alone.
However, if funding cools and open interest resets, the price could consolidate. Previous bottlenecks show that sustainability depends on demand replacing leverage in the short term.
OG delivers withdrawal signals…
OG Bitcoin holders are no longer distributing at the pace seen earlier in this cycle.
STXO data for coins that have been inactive for more than five years shows a clear slowdown in long-term holders’ spending.
Facts from CryptoQuant confirms that OGs were very active until 2024, using institutional demand and government purchases as ideal exit liquidity.
However, that behavior has changed. Earlier in the cycle, OG spending peaked at almost 3,800 BTC, then cooled down to 3,200 BTC, followed by 2,200 BTC.
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In the short term, OG’s lighter selling reduces supply overhead and supports price stability. On the contrary, in the long term this behavior shows conviction.
Historically, OG constraint aligns with accumulation phases and not with late-cycle distribution.
Whales hedge as retail commits: who will break first?
The graph shows a clear difference. Whales first relax their long exposure and then switch to shorts, indicating a deliberate shift.
Meanwhile, the price remains high even as momentum fades. At the same time, leverage is quietly being rebuilt.
Taken together, these factors tilt the risk downward. Whales respond early because they observe busy positioning and behavior in the late cycle.
Furthermore, OG Bitcoin holders are no longer aggressively distributing. That isolates the organic selling pressure and leaves leverage as the main driver.
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Retailers often move in the opposite direction. They chase upward momentum and react to price rather than structure. As volatility increases, they tend to add long positions.
Meanwhile, on-chain data from Alphractal showed whales closing longs and selling shorts as Bitcoin approached $69,000. Retail traders did the opposite and piled into leveraged long positions.
Soon after, Bitcoin corrected nearly 20%, falling from $69,000 to $56,000 before stabilizing.
This arrangement indicates a possible shakeout or cooling phase. If leverage decreases, the price will likely recover before sustainable continuation can occur.
Overall, Bitcoin’s structure is clear, as leverage, not spot demand, drives momentum.
Short liquidations drove the price higher, while OG sales slowed and whales became defensive. This reduces supply, but increases vulnerability.
Therefore, the upward trend remains fragile. Sustainable profits require short-term demand to replace leverage. Until then, volatility risk remains high, and any further extension remains subject to a corrective reset.
Final thoughts
- Leverage is now driving Bitcoin’s momentum, with short liquidations pushing the price higher while spot market demand remains secondary, increasing the risk of volatility-induced pullbacks.
- Smart money is becoming more cautious as whales hedge and OG holders slow selling, pointing to tighter supply but a fragile rally unless spot buyers intervene.