Bitcoin [BTC] has witnessed reduced demand from US investors in recent months. This fact was established using Coinbase Premium, but saw a positive development in recent days.
Source: CryptoQuant Insights
In a post on CryptoQuant Insights, user IT Tech pointed out that the metric saw a green blip for the first time since December. However, they quickly warned that this could be a fakeout.
The premium has been negative since November. The situation was positive for a short period in mid-December, but did not last. Interest rates need to stay above zero for three to five days before there is confirmation that US demand is waking up.
The realized volatility metric showed that the market was in a phase of increased volatility. The value of the metric rose to 0.83 earlier this month, the highest level since 2022. This metric is the annualized standard deviation of 30-day daily returns.
The downward trend in 2022 caused strong price fluctuations and heralded the start of large-scale price revision waves. analyst noted.
Glassnode agreed with these findings. It’s recent message on Xthey used options data to show that the market was essentially on high alert. The 47% implied volatility on 1- and 3-month contracts indicated that the market expected a 14% price move over the next 30 days.
Glassnode further stated that the skew persisted place territory. This was further evidence that the market was worried about a further decline in the coming month.
Projection of the bottom of the Bitcoin market
AMBCrypto had warned in a recent report that the bearish phase could last another six months. The short-term bearish situation and regulatory uncertainty could also amplify price swings and macro factors like war do not contribute to stimulating market sentiment.
It’s Possible That Current Bearish Cycle Could Cause Bitcoin Price to Fall to $38,000, Analyst Predicted Yonsei. To map this projection, historical cycle declines from record highs were used.
A comparison to the low point of the six-month bear market in 2022 shows a line with a 70%-75% decline from the all-time high.
Although the exact bottom remains uncertain, current data indicate that it has probably not yet been reached.
Final summary
- The Coinbase Premium gap has turned positive for the first time since mid-December, but it must remain that way to signal a recovery.
- Recent events and BTC’s price reaction, combined with volatility statistics, have shown that the market is preparing for a deeper decline next week.