- As Bitcoin’s price remained within a tight range, investors refrained from trading.
- Holders of 100 – 100,000 BTC have largely distributed their holdings in the direction of price recovery.
A review of Bitcoins [BTC] on-chain activity indicated that the market was in a state of indecision at the time of writing. Based on the key on-chain metrics observed, there were no major sell-off signals. However, there were no major buy signals either. This suggested that the market was likely to remain range-bound for now.
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The next price direction remains undetermined
Pseudonymous CryptoQuant Analyst Binh Dang assessed the short- and medium-term behavior patterns of BTC holders and the exchange activity of BTC whales and small investors and found that the overall market remained averse to making significant trades.
Dang looked at the net unrealized profit/loss data of short-term holders (STH-NUPL) and that of short-term holders (MTH-NUPL) and found both to be positioned at zero.
The STH-NUPL metric measures the unrealized profit/loss of short-term holders who have held their BTCs for less than 12 months. In contrast, MTH-NUPL tracks the unrealized gains/losses of medium-term holders who have held their coins for six months to two years.
While these stats are high and positive (above zero), they suggest that investors in both cohorts were bullish and took profits. Conversely, low and negative readings for both measures indicated bearish sentiment, with investors posting losses.
While holding zero at press time, neither short-term nor intermediate-term holders made profits. This neutral signal could mean that the market is ready for a breakout in either direction.
“Mostly stable with limited increases”
Furthermore, the analyst observed BTC’s UTxOs Exchange Inflow on a 7-day moving average. This metric measures the amount of a crypto asset deposited on exchanges from unspent transaction outputs.
According to Dang:
“Data is smoothed with a 7-day average showing limited activity from large ownership groups (100-10,000) sending coins to exchanges. The most influential band since May 25 is the 10-100 range, which has cooled down considerably. Large cohorts are largely stable, with limited increases.”
Source: CryptoQuant
This shows that there has been limited activity from major ownership groups in sending coins to exchanges. This is also a neutral signal and suggests that there is no major sell-out pressure from these groups.
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Taking a closer look at the dominance of this cohort of investors in terms of their UTXO percentage, Dang noted:
“During the post-ATH bear market, high ratios (>= 40%) of 100 – 10K -> 10K property cohorts were associated with significant volatility, often leading to sharp declines.”
However, their UTXO dominance has declined since the beginning of the year. This suggests that this group of holders is holding on to their coins, and as Dang points out, they have limited “coin distribution to support the recovery trend” rather than making quick gains.
Source: CryptoQuant
