Bitcoin started October on a strong bullish note, gaining over 12% to set a new all-time high price of around $126,100. However, there has been a disturbing amount of selling pressure in recent days, especially in the last few hours tariff threats of US President Donald Trump. Amid this highly volatile environment, on-chain data has also emerged, underscoring market whales’ confidence in the market.
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Bitcoin whales are holding firm
In one QuickTake post on the CryptoQuant platform, a market analyst with the username PelinayPA revealed that there is very little exchange activity between the Bitcoin whales, despite the recent decline in the price of Bitcoin. The leading cryptocurrency initially fell below $120,000 on Friday and found support around $116,000 before US President Donald Trump’s statement on tariffs forced a flash crash to around $101,000.
PelinayPA’s report was specifically based on the Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR), a Binance metric, which tracks the share of BTC inflows to exchanges coming from the top 10 largest addresses. This measure is useful because it helps analysts assess whether large investors are creating increased selling pressure or softening bearish momentum.
A high EWR value, of values above 0.5, generally indicates high inflows of whales to exchanges, either to sell their holdings or to exchange for other crypto assets. By extension, increasing exchange rate activity reflects on price as boosting bearish momentum. On the other hand, when the EWR is low, less than 0.3, it usually means that there is little whale activity on the exchanges and less of the cryptocurrency is traded by the top holders.
Interestingly enough, this conjecture is supported by historical events. Before the 2021 bull market peak, PelinayPA notes that EWR spikes indicated whales were preparing to sell their assets. As the end of the 2022 bear market approaches, it is also worth noting that EWR levels remained below 0.3, indicating accumulation and preparation for a bullish run.
The analyst also pointed to EWR levels from 2024 to 2025. From 2024 onwards, “when the price of Bitcoin rose above $100,000, the EWR stabilized around 0.3 and showed less sharp increases,” indicating that whales may have maintained their positions rather than selling their holdings. Currently, EWR levels still stand at 0.3, amid recent price declines that reflect the stance of the Bitcoin whales taking a “neutral to supportive” stance with no evidence of large-scale distribution.
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What next for Bitcoin?
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s next move will likely depend on how traders respond to changing macroeconomic conditions and key technical levels. If the EWR rises towards the 0.5 zone, this could indicate growing distribution pressure, meaning whales could start transferring their holdings to exchanges in anticipation of a market top.
However, if EWR trends fall instead, it would reinforce the current bullish structure, showing that large holders are keeping coins off the exchanges and maintaining confidence in the rally. PelinayPA predicts that this continued low EWR would push Bitcoin towards the $163,000 range. Nevertheless, investors can start taking profits around $150,000, which represents a psychological resistance.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $110,517, with a significant loss in value of almost 8.36% in just 24 hours.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview