- Exec predicts a bullish year for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana
- For him, however, Cardano’s prospects appear bleak, hinting at possible irrelevance
During a recent episode from the podcast The Wolf of All Streets, Tom Dunleavy, Partner and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at MV Capital, predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $100,000, while Ethereum (ETH) could see its value rise to $8,000.
However, he also expects that the two largest cryptocurrencies could lose market share to Solana (SOL) as it rises above $400.
Bitcoin’s most bullish scenario
Dunleavy elaborated on the rationale, suggesting that $100,000 may be a bit low. Referring to historical patterns observed after the halving, he said:
“If you look at the figures after the halving, we generally see a fourfold increase.”
However, he also warned that such predictions, with only four examples to draw from, are not very reliable. Instead, the director proposed a solid base case of a 2x increase for Bitcoin.
Dunleavy further highlighted Bitcoin’s importance as the largest settlement layer in terms of economic weight, suggesting its potential expansion into decentralized finance (DeFi). This evolution, he argued, is a logical step for the network. with an increasing number of protocols vying for dominance.
3. BTC $100,000, ETH $8,000, but both lose mkt stock to Sol as rally continues@solana rises above $400 and sees record high active addresses of over 1 million on some days. @SolanaConf is the event of the year you must attend. @aeyaovenko It’s still not about the token, just building (😂) pic.twitter.com/xq8I6197Ji
— Tom Dunleavy (@dunleavy89) January 4, 2024
Solana vs Ethereum
Dunleavy pointed to the Solana Saga mobile as a major factor in his bullish position. The rapid sell-out of 60,000 Solana Saga 2 phones further illustrates growing consumer interest. In fact, dDespite some network outages, Dunleavy pointed out that SOL’s price has shown resilience. Moreover, Jupiter’s sky descent (JUP) has also created a significant wealth effect.
“Jupiter is only a quarter of the way done with their airdrop… so there will be a lot more, and you will just see that money lying around in Solana”
While this strategy was criticized by some as merely generating artificial liquidity, it was championed by Dunleavy as a gateway that draws users into real use cases and innovation within the ecosystem. He contrasted Solana’s approach with Ethereums. The platform has received criticism for a perceived slow evolution towards an improved user experience and liquidity concerns.
In turn, Ethereum researchers have proposed solutions, such as shared sequencers, to address these issues. However, the community is growing impatient with the expected two- to three-year timeline for these improvements.
“I think Ethereum is either going to boom or some of these others are going to steal a lot of market share quickly.”
Meanwhile, Solana and platforms like Apto and Sui are quickly responding to market demands for usability and developer-friendly environments.
Is Cardano dead?
Dunleavy offered a critical perspective on the future of Cardano (ADA), suggesting a bleak outlook for the once-promising blockchain platform. According to him, a new interoperable UTXO/EVM chain is ready to take its place. He attributed the platform’s challenges to a lack of essential features such as a stablecoin and a vibrant DeFi ecosystem, which is largely due to the limitations inherent in Cardano’s protocol mechanisms.
The director also pointed to the leadership at Cardano, describing it as resistant to change and adaptation. This has led to enormous frustration among developers and projects, causing them to look for alternatives.