- Bitcoin was experiencing a psychological wave, making a correction unlikely for the time being.
- However, when fundamentals finally prevail, panic can ensue.
Fears of market overheating increase as Bitcoin increases [BTC] surges past the $68K benchmark, breaking a four-month slump even as the RSI sees a sharp decline.
As a result, trading just above this critical level could mark a potential top for BTC. If this range is confirmed as a resistance point, there could be a price correction on the horizon, potentially leading to mass capitulation. However,
The Rise of Bitcoin: Psychology Over Fundamentals
First, it is essential to consider that Bitcoin is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors.
There is currently a confluence of events, such as the post-halving golfThe impending end of the election cycle, the ‘Uptober’ frenzy, and Fed rate cuts have combined to push Bitcoin to $68,000 in just ten days without any solid pullback.
This is important because while key technical factors point to a near-term reversal, these macro factors could reinforce large investors’ belief that this is a prime buying area.
In other words, big players could still see this level as an opportunity, and this psychological momentum could attract more buyers, fueled by rising FOMO as market sentiment increases.
Source: Glassnode
This is supported by the increase in whale activity: addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have reached a three-month high. The last major spike occurred alongside a 5% daily price increase, pushing BTC above $66,000.
Simply put, whales have played a key role in countering bearish pressure. Since the beginning of October, their activity has strengthened AMBCrypto’s initial hypothesis: macro factors attract big players.
Overall, this cycle appears to be psychologically driven. So despite bearish attempts to short Bitcoin, the chances of a significant correction appear slim for now.
Market buzz leads the way to $73K
Historically, the half year has been a reliable indicator of when a bull cycle might occur. Peaks in the 30-day demand average (highlighted in green) have consistently coincided with Bitcoin supply declines during halving events.
These supply reductions typically lead to long-term rallies, providing outsized returns to stakeholders.
Source: CryptoQuant
Interestingly, even if the fundamentals don’t materialize immediately, the widespread expectation alone can trigger a breakout.
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This cycle is a case in point: the market was buzzing with expectations of a halving-induced rally, and true to tradition, Bitcoin rose to $68,000 in a remarkably short time frame.
That said, if whale activity continues on this uptrend – which seems likely – Bitcoin could reach its all-time high of $73,000 before the end of the fourth quarter.
