Wall Street’s largest gold fund recently saw something unusual: a $3 billion outflow from SPDR Gold shares in a single day, a number that dwarfs any comparable daily outflow in the past two years by more than 200%.
The $3 billion outflow in one day from SPDR Gold Shares – a gold-backed US ETF trading under the ticker GLD – was highlighted by the Kobeissi letter which exceeds every comparable daily outing in the past two years by more than 200%.
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On the same side of the ledger, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net inflows of more than $900 million in the thirty days ending March 11, while outflows fluctuated near $2 billion the month before.
BREAKING: The Largest US Gold-Backed ETF, $GLDposted record outflows of -$3.0 billion on Wednesday.
This exceeds any previous major daily outflow over the past two years by +200%.
At the same time, silver ETFs recorded small outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs saw modest inflows. pic.twitter.com/XF8y99cPSV
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 6, 2026
A ratio to watch
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen back to a support zone near 12-13 – a level that blocked further gains in 2017 and then turned to support in 2022 and 2023.
Analysts say history adds weight to the current price level. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, points to a bullish divergence between the ratio and the relative strength index on the daily chart.
Simply put, this means that selling pressure appears to be easing, even as prices remain under pressure. Whether that signal holds is another matter, but it has caught the attention of traders keeping an eye on Bitcoin’s long-term position gold.
#Bitcoin vs. Gold is currently breaking upwards after confirming the bullish divergence.
This should indicate that we are about to see significantly more strength in Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/vwIpwJ82qz
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 11, 2026
The shift in ETF positions strengthens the picture. Bitcoin ETF balances have improved by approximately 12,900 BTC in the past month gold ETF During a similar period, assets fell by almost 800,000 ounces. Capital seems to be moving, even if slowly.
There will be institutions, but not yet complete
Binance Research flagged the current market volatility as what it called an “opportunity within risk” for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has recently kept pace with oil and US stocks, moving alongside broader macro assets as the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has kept global markets tense. Despite this turbulence, institutional interest has not dried up.
US spot ETFs now account for around 9% of total Bitcoin trading volume. That sounds modest – and it is. In US stock markets, ETFs account for 30-40% of total trading volume. The gap tells its own story about how much room remains for institutional participation to grow.
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History offers a cautionary but compelling pattern
The midterm election years have not been kind to asset risking. The S&P 500 has averaged a 16% peak-to-trough decline during these cycles.
Bitcoin’s declines were steeper, averaging around 56%. But the 12 months following the midterm elections, without exception since 1939, have produced positive returns for the S&P 500, with an average gain of 19%.
With just three post-midterm years under its belt, Bitcoin has averaged a gain of 54% across all three periods.
Reports from Binance research also identified $78,000 as the level Bitcoin would need to regain to signal a broader trend reversal.
BTC was trading around $71,500 at the time of publication. The distance between the two figures is not huge, but in a market that moves so quickly, it is not small either.
Featured image of Incrementumchart from TradingView