Bitcoin could be on track for a massive long-term rally if one of the crypto industry’s most interesting valuation models still holds. According to pseudonymous analyst PlanB, the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model suggests that Bitcoin could average around $500,000 during the current halving cycle between 2024 and 2028.
The bold projection comes in the same way as Bitcoin show no signs of trading at that level in recent days, but recent price action in the past 24 hours has regained the $70,000 price level.
This is when Bitcoin will reach $500,000
PlanB’s projection for Bitcoin It’s not that the cryptocurrency’s price action will immediately jump to $50,000, but that the entire post-halving cycle from 2024 through 2028 could average around that level if the Stock-to-Flow framework continues to develop as predicted. That’s a much more aggressive call than simply predicting a cycle top, because an average of $500,000 would imply that Bitcoin would eventually spend a meaningful amount of time well above that price level at some stage of the cycle.
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The current Bitcoin price setup is a test of whether the leading cryptocurrency is deeply undervalued at current levels, or if the S2F model has finally been broken for good.
The chart attached to PlanB’s technical analysis helps explain this prediction of a $500,000 price tag for Bitcoin. It overlays Bitcoin’s price history with the 200-week moving average, realized cost, RSI coloring, and a stair-stepped Stock-to-Flow path. The dotted S2F path for the 2024-2028 halving window rises to around $500,000 in 2027.
Bitcoin S2F model. Source: Plan B on X
What’s going on with Bitcoin?
Bitcoin has spent the past week swinging between recovery and pressure, a period in which the assets traded above $73,000 on March 5, before falling back to the mid-$60,000s and then rebounding above $70,000 at the time of writing. That uncertain context of price action is what makes PlanB’s latest Stock-to-Flow price prediction stand out, as it takes strong belief to predict an average price of $500,000 for Bitcoin.
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The recent price action places Bitcoin just above two long-awaited structural supports: the realized cost and the 200-week moving average. Both supports are also visible in PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model chart shared above. That doesn’t automatically prove that a six- or seven-figure breakout is next, but it does support the view that the entire cycle structure has not completely collapsed.
As it stands now, about 43% of Bitcoin addresses holding on at a loss, the majority of which are short-term holders and Bitcoin treasury companies. However, many analysts have suggested that Bitcoin’s correction is still no bottom founddespite having fallen by more than 45% from its October 2025 peak.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com