Bitcoin (BTC) ended February with its fifth straight monthly loss, marking only the second time in its history that the leading cryptocurrency has printed five consecutive red candles on the monthly chart.
Upside call options rise
In its latest decline, Bitcoin fell to around $63,000 last Saturday, representing a decline of around 15% for the month of February. However, early March has brought about a modest recovery.
The asset opened the first week of the month at $68,600, posting gains of just over 3% as it attempts to reclaim the $70,000 level, which has continuously acted as a significant resistance barrier in recent weeks.
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Despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, market participants appear relatively calm. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said traders do not expect the conflict in Iran to cause major economic disruption.
In a note to Bloomberg, Thielen said That demand for upside Bitcoin call options has increased in recent days, indicating that some investors are positioning themselves for a possible rally ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
The current format has also revived historical comparisons. The last time Bitcoin experienced a similar series of red monthly candles was during the Bear Market 2018–2019.
In that earlier cycle, the asset posted six consecutive monthly losses. What followed was a sharp reversal: five straight green candles and a 308% increase, with Bitcoin rising from around $3,400 to $14,000.
Market Watchers Divided on Bitcoin Outlook
Market expert Ash Crypto recently marked This social media pattern suggests that if history were to repeat itself, Bitcoin could approach a cyclical low after its fifth red month.
A similar 300% advance from current trading levels would imply a potential move towards $272,000. However, such a projection depends on whether the recent lows ultimately prove to be the final low of this correction.
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Not all analysts are convinced that the downturn is over. Technical analyst Virtual Bacon has done that outlined the possibility of further retracement before a sustainable recovery can be expected.
He identified $65,000 – previously an all-time high – as the first major level, noting that the price has already revisited that zone. For those who subscribe to the contention that past highs often turn into support, he suggested the opportunity may already be there.
According to him, a deeper pullback could push Bitcoin towards $58,000, where the Simple moving average over 200 weeks (SMA) is currently sitting. Historically, this long-term indicator has played a crucial role in determining market bottoms.
It helped contain the sharp sell-off during the COVID-19 crash of 2020, marked an all-time low in 2018, and tested multiple times in 2015 without ever falling below that on a weekly basis.
Because of this track record, the 200-week moving average is widely considered one of the most reliable long-term accumulation zones in Bitcoin history.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com