Key Takeaways
Why did BTC.D rise while Bitcoin fell?
Altcoins bled harder than BTC, so capital shifted to Bitcoin as a relative safe haven, increasing BTC’s dominance by 2.33% to 63%
Can BTC Fall Back to $100,000?
If the $110,000 bottom holds during the alt-to-BTC rotation, a drop to $100,000 seems unlikely, although traders should pay attention to the key differences.
This week reminded us that timing is everything in crypto.
On the one hand, almost $20 billion worth of Bitcoin [BTC] positions were wiped out, leaving many traders to suffer heavy losses. But some came out on top. For example, one whale was $735 million BTC short and scored big.
In fact, this move aligned so perfectly with macro FUD that traders are speculating about “insider trading,” demonstrating the importance of timing. Which brings us to the big question: Is Bitcoin headed for a Q1-style breakdown?
Key BTC levels are crumbling as the market relives the first quarter FUD
Just as the market seemed to absorb the shocks, another crash occurred.
It almost seemed like the market had learned to shrug off surprises; However, Bitcoin’s 7% drop to $109,000 on October 10 proved that rates can still shake belief and trigger panic attacks.
On the charts, BTC has erased all gains from late September and early October, pulling back 13% from the ATH of $125,000. The $116,000 – $119,000 support zone broke even if there was a short-term long piled up in heavy, turning sentiment bearish in a flash.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Against this arrangement, a Q1 style -11.8% BTC decline would not be excessive.
At the time, Trump cut successive 25% tariffs in February and March, then introduced sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” in April. The consequences? BTC lost 30%, marking the worst sell-off since the 2022 bear market.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could see its first red fourth quarter in two years. In fact, a dip back to $100,000 would be on the table. That said, an important difference shows that it may be too early to speak of a complete withdrawal.
Bitcoin is slipping as dominance peaks amid altcoin sell-off
Despite the market-wide hemorrhage, Bitcoin has regained more than 60% market share.
Simply put, altcoins were crushed harder than BTC. Even during the dip, Bitcoin was still seen as the ‘safer bet’, causing Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) to rise 2.33% to 63%, bringing it back to early August levels.
The consequences? The Altcoin Seasonal Index dumped 12 points to 47, meaning the market is only halfway to a full ‘Bitcoin season’. This reflects the first quarter, when BTC.D peaked at 65%, fueling a 30% recovery in the second quarter.
Source: TradingView (BTC.D)
In short, despite the sell-off, BTC remained the safe haven.
If this gap holds, $110,000 could form a bottom as capital rotates out of “high-risk, high-reward” alts into Bitcoin, something worth keeping a close eye on. In this context, a drop to $100,000 becomes unlikely.