Bitcoin fluctuates within a defined price range on the chart, largely between $89,000 and $93,000.
On-chain analysis shows that this movement is a back-and-forth between investors becoming profitable and others splitting those profits. In between is a subtle sign that Bitcoin is building stronger momentum, but there is more to the recent trend.
The bears are still inside
The growing momentum seems somewhat coincidental across several segments of Bitcoin [BTC] holders, especially among US spot ETFs.
Glassnode’s recent research found that Bitcoin’s gradual decline from its true market average value of $81,900 led to an increase in investor profitability.
The Market Value Realized Value (MVRV), which tracks this profitability, rose slightly to 1.67, while trading volume rose to a high of $22.6 billion.
This was divisive among ETF investors, who went from bullish to bearish as they realized gains. Figures show that this group went from purchasing $134.2 million worth of Bitcoin to selling $707.3 million.
Source: Glassnode
In the options market, an interesting trend shows that investors remain skeptical about the bullish momentum.
Many hedge by opening short positions. The confirmation came as the 25-delta skew rose to 12.88 percent, indicating traders are paying more to protect against downside risks.
The momentum is still building
Pressure is mounting in the market in obvious ways.
The Relative Strength Index, a momentum oscillator that measures whether the market is overbought, oversold or trending, confirms this shift. Using the 14-day RSI there was a clear increase from 38.6 to 58.2. This move from below 50 to above indicates an uptrend and strengthening momentum.
Earnings offer rose over the same period, with Glassnode reporting a modest increase to the region of 67.3 percent.
It’s important to note that while rising profitability suggests more capital is flowing into the market, it also signals that a sell-off could be taking place. Glassnode noticed that
“Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery momentum, but sentiment and positioning remain cautious, highlighting a market that is still rebuilding confidence after recent volatility.”
MEXC’s lead analyst Shawn Young noted that macro factors also influence Bitcoin’s price, especially its ability to trade past the $94,000 region.
“Macro uncertainty is another factor contributing to Bitcoin’s muted moves. Even though traditional stocks have shown strength lately, Bitcoin has not followed suit.”
Bitcoin STH plays a role
Both short- and long-term investors play a role. For now, the market movement is largely driven by short-term bondholders.
Confirmation came from a rise in STH-SOPR to 18.5%, according to the latest data, with Hot Capital Share holdings at 39.9 percent.
If short-term holders accumulate more while taking minimal profits – and long-term holders do the same – Bitcoin has a faster route to recovery.
Source: Glassnode
Notably, STHs continue to suffer net losses as Bitcoin is still trading well below their average purchase price around $109,000.
With momentum building, more investors may choose to hold Bitcoin longer as they anticipate the price reaching the $100,000 mark and potentially exceeding their cost basis in the near term.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin’s recent momentum is showing early signs of strength, but the market still has a cautious tone shaped by ETFs, options hedging, and short-term holder behavior.
- A break above the current range could reveal whether improving profitability and rising momentum can shift sentiment more decisively.