Key Takeaways
What happens if Bitcoin heads towards major support?
With Bitcoin falling below its support level, staying above $82,000 is crucial. A decline below this level could lead to capitulation of both STHs and LTHs.
Why is whale activity important this week?
This week, the whale moves are leaning more towards distribution, showing that even Bitcoin OGs are taking profits as Bitcoin plummets.
The spotlight is now on Bitcoin [BTC] buyer side.
The logic is simple: as BTC moves further away from its ATHs, maintaining support becomes crucial. With earnings under pressure and BTC having a significant cost base, sell-side pressure is likely to increase as weak hands stretch out.
However, the lack of an immediate recovery is adding to buyers’ indecisiveness.
Despite four consecutive weeks of declines, there is no strong buying interest yet.
With pressure mounting, data suggests Bitcoin should maintain its current levels; Otherwise, a repeat of the 2022 bear market could be looming.
Whale activity increases as Bitcoin falls below support
Bitcoin OG whales aren’t dodging the downside this cycle.
On a chain, the Long Term Holder (LTH) MVRV has fallen to nearly 1.4, at the time of writing, from its peak of 3.4 in early October, closely tracking the broader market as Bitcoin plummets nearly 30% from its all-time high of $126,000.
Simply put, LTH profitability is rapidly thinning out.
On top of that, Santiment labels this week as “the most active Bitcoin whale week of 2025.” To date, there have been over 102.9,000 whale transactions over $100,000 and over 29,000 transactions over $1 million.
Source: Santiment
At the same time, with Bitcoin dipping below $90,000 with a weekly dip of 1.6%, whale activity appears to be shifting towards distribution. To support this, Lookonchain highlighted a BTC OG whale that moves all 2,499 BTC to Kraken.
In short, as long-term holders see their profits shrink, selling BTC becomes a logical play. As a result, bid-side support remains absent even as Bitcoin dives deeper into the red, stalling any upswing.
That said, there is no confirmed bear phase yet.
In particular, Glassnode’s data highlights a key support level that Bitcoin must hold to prevent a full-blown downtrend from forming. However, if bid-side support remains weak, could a deeper decline become inevitable?
On-chain metrics show where investors are getting hurt
Unsurprisingly, an STH shakeout proceeds as expected.
From an on-chain perspective, with Bitcoin falling below the short-term holder cost basis (STH) of $109,000, the STH NUPL drops into the capitulation zone, putting more pressure on BTC’s ability to provide HODL support.
At the time of writing, Glassnode data revealed tension in two key on-chain metrics: the Active Investors Mean was $88.6K, while the True Market Mean was $82K.
A break below would confirm the first major bear trend since May 2022.
Source: Glassnode
For context, these metrics represent Bitcoin’s “fair value” zones.
In other words: prices at which buyers intervene to absorb the selling pressure. The Active Investor Average tracks the average cost base of “active” participants, while the True Market Average reflects the broader cost base.
However, as Bitcoin plummets and bid-side support weakens, these zones come under pressure. If they fail, it could signal capitulation by both STHs and LTHs, increasing the risk of a deeper, prolonged bear cycle.
In short, holding more than $82,000 is now more important than ever for Bitcoin.