In an analysis of Bitcoin’s current market dynamics, prominent crypto analyst Dan Gambardello says in his latest video Titled ‘Bitcoin Must Do This Now’, he addressed his 368,000 followers on YouTube about the critical resistance levels Bitcoin is currently testing. Gambardello emphasized the importance of these levels for both short-term price movements and broader market indicators.
Why Bitcoin Needs to Turn Bullish Now
Gambardello’s analysis begins by emphasizing the importance of the holder’s short-term cost basis, which currently stands at $63,600. He highlighted this measure as a crucial momentum indicator, underscoring its role in determining the immediate bearish or bullish nature of the market. “Bitcoin is just $2,000 away from its short-term holder cost base that now stands at $63,600.” According to Gambardello, this is a crucial momentum indicator that investors should pay attention to.
Gambardello also maps out the various resistance zones that Bitcoin must conquer to signal an optimistic turnaround in the market. He points out that Bitcoin is operating just above the 20-day moving average on the daily chart at the time of his analysis. However, the proximity of the cut-off time for the daily candle made the situation very cautious. The 50 and 200 day moving averages were also discussed as major barriers that needed to be broken to confirm a bullish trend.
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In addition to these moving averages, the Fibonacci retracement levels are another cornerstone of his technical research. He elaborates on the potential for Bitcoin to enter a lower area of high resistance, which could lead to price consolidation or a downward correction if these levels are not breached.
Gambardello also moves into macroeconomic territory. He indicates that the prevalence of recession-related fears could indicate broader economic shifts that could impact the broader crypto market. “The algorithms on X bombard me with recession messages, recession data and recession graphs. There is a likely upside because there are actually a lot of indicators that the market is going to crash,” he explained.
Furthermore, the crypto analyst focuses heavily on the 20-week moving average, a level he describes as a historically important marker in distinguishing between bull and bear markets. The inability to sustain levels above this moving average, he points out, often precedes bearish trends, while support at or above this line could herald bullish conditions. “Failure to break above the 20-week moving average is what Bitcoin does when it enters a bear market,” he notes.
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From a momentum perspective, the analyst drew attention to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators. Both instruments, he mentions, currently suggest that Bitcoin is well-positioned for a potential upward move, given the consolidation patterns and cooldowns seen recently.
However, Bitcoin needs to go up now. “Bitcoin really took off last cycle when the RSI was around 54 […] if you go back two cycles Bitcoin was consistently around 53, 50 almost 54 before taking off each time […] consolidation in the RSI, and then boom. So we are exactly where we need to be from a momentum perspective. But the step we need is happening now,” the crypto analyst warns.
Another warning sign could be a sustained decline below the 20-week moving average. “We need to see Bitcoin move above that 20-week moving average. […] When we see resistance […] we have to anticipate that we can get into the lower $50,000s very quickly. It could happen very quickly,” says Gambardello, seeing it as a key condition for the onset of a sustained bullish phase.
From a bullish perspective, Gambardello is waiting for a breakout above $63,700. “We are looking for bullish confirmations to break this whole range and currently it is around $63,000 or a maximum of around 63,700 – that is the range, it is not even a big range for Bitcoin to make the move but that is where we watching,” he notes.
Overall, it’s a matter of $50,000 or $70,000, as Gambardello puts it on X: “A break above that could trigger a mini-run towards $70,000. A bust could mean a new low around $50,000.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
