“Timing” in trading is everything, and right now the market setup really proves that.
Technically, crypto has diverged sharply from the broader risk markets.
Nearly $400 billion has flowed into crypto in the past three weeks, while traditional markets have lost more than $2 trillion. This contrast highlights a clear shift, showing that investors are increasingly investing in risky assets.
As a direct result: Bitcoin [BTC] is up almost 25% from the $60k bottom, which obviously puts the $75k-$80k range in focus.
That said, the latest CryptoQuant Report shows that traders are already pricing in more upside potential, suggesting the market is bracing for a period of increased volatility.
Looking at the chart above, long positions are piling up above the $73,000 level, with participants clearly expecting the momentum to continue rather than fade.
That said, it is important to separate smart, strategic positioning from hype-driven optimism to understand how this positioning could impact BTC.
This is particularly where ‘timing’ comes into play.
The upcoming FOMC meeting March 18 will be the first since conflict erupted in the Middle East, putting additional pressure on the US economy as oil prices continue to rise. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin traders’ optimism could quickly backfire if the market reacts unexpectedly, making timing more important than ever.
On the other hand, however, with $1.3 billion in BTC shorts stacked around $80,000, the current bullish positioning could become strategically important.
This naturally begs the question: If strong bid flows support this optimism, can bulls unravel a textbook bear trap and turn a short squeeze into the catalyst for Bitcoin’s breakout?
Time for bulls to protect Bitcoin’s place as a hedge
Bitcoin is clearly defying mainstream expectations, and that sets a bullish tone.
According to FedWatchthere is a 98.9% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged during the next FOMC, with only a 1.1% increase in prices. Simply put, the broader market isn’t really betting on rate cuts, but traders will be keeping a close eye on future guidance from the Federal Reserve.
In this context Bitcoin’s 365-day MVRV is at +22.1%, meaning BTC is still trading well below long-term expectations for holders. This shows that despite the recent gains, there is still significant upside potential for those who hold the stock in the coming months or years, making this an attractive opportunity for long-term buyers.
What’s interesting is that buyers seem to be following this playbook.
On February 16, Bitcoin’s 30-day moving average volume delta about Binance and Coinbase was very negative.
On March 18, these numbers turned positive, around +$21 million on Binance and +$14 million on Coinbase, indicating that buying pressure is returning, with traders stepping in to support the rally.
Against this backdrop, BTC perpetual futures positioning seems quite strategic.
With volatility likely to increase post-FOMC, Bitcoin’s bid support seems strong enough to cope with short-term pressure. If this trend continues, the $1.3 billion worth of BTC shorts could come under pressure, creating a classic bear trap and paving the way for a breakout past $80,000.
Final summary
- Bitcoin long positions are piling above $73,000, setting the stage for a potential volatility plunge ahead of the upcoming FOMC.
- The Middle East crisis and rising oil prices are increasing risk, but Bitcoin’s 365-day MVRV ratio and recent positive volume shifts in the spot market point to long-term buying opportunities and resilient bullish momentum.