Key Takeaways
How long has Bitcoin held above $100,000?
Bitcoin has remained above $100,000 for almost a year, its longest sustained gain streak ever.
What do traders expect next?
Institutions are betting on volatility as Bitcoin trades between $107,000 and $122,000 ahead of key US data.
Bitcoin [BTC] has held more than $100,000 for almost a year, but the market has gone quiet.
No one knows for sure which way things will go, and fresh money has slowed to a trickle. For now, BTC seems to be stuck in the neutral position, waiting for something to set it free.
Where do we go from here?
A peace like never before
In previous bull cycles, Bitcoin’s euphoric peaks were short-lived.
The price would rise to new highs but crash just as quickly, leaving investors stuck at the top. This time it’s different.
Source: Alpharactal
Data from Alpharactal shows Bitcoin has spent almost a year above $100,000 with minimal withdrawals, making this the longest sustained gain streak in its history.
Source: Alpharactal
The number of “losing days” has fallen to a multi-year low, meaning most holders are still making a profit and not rushing to sell.
As Alphractal’s Joao Wedson notes, this cycle flipped the script, putting consolidation before euphoria. Echoing that vision, Farzam Ehlani, CEO of VALR, told AMBCrypto:
“Bitcoin’s rise above $115,000 is more than just a relief rally. It marks the beginning of a new price discovery phase in the current market cycle, following one of the most aggressive deleveraging phases in crypto market history.”
He added that whales have resumed large-scale accumulation as leverage has disappeared from the system. These conditions are usually followed by upward movements.
Bet on big moves, not directions
Source: CryptoQuant
Data from CME and Binance show traders pile on both call and put options, betting on volatility, but not choosing sides.
OI remains concentrated in near-term expirations linked to key US economic data such as Core PCE and FOMC updates, indicating a wait-and-see approach.
Institutions are hedging short-term risks instead of taking long-term positions, leaving Bitcoin stuck between $107,000 and $122,000. But this is what you should also see.
Source: Alpharactal
According to Alphractal, Bitcoin has exceeded two crucial metrics: the short-term holder realized price and the true market average price.
Source: Alpharactal
Exceeding these levels has so far been the moment when the market transitions from mid-cycle uncertainty to new upward momentum.
The Fibonacci-adjusted average model supports this, showing BTC bouncing back from lower bands and regaining equilibrium.
Ehlani noted that this type of “technically disciplined trading rather than speculation-based betting” shows that the market is building a foundation for long-term growth, not a fleeting short squeeze.
Sentiment may be subdued, but the data proves that Bitcoin has spirit.