- BTC rose +68% in Q1 2024, driven in part by US spot flows from BTC ETFs.
- Krueger estimated that BTC will reach $195,000 by the end of 2024 as a result of the flows.
Bitcoin [BTC] recorded an impressive performance in the first quarter of 2024 thanks to flows from the new US spot BTC ETFs (exchange-traded funds).
Digital gold rose more than 68% in the first quarter, rising from $38.5K to $73.7K. During the same period, total flows from spot ETFs reached $12 billion, and total assets exceeded $59 billion. Collectively, it pushed BTC’s market cap to over $1 trillion.
Bitcoin Price Driver: Halving vs. ETF Flows
Based on historical data, Fred Krueger, a maximalist and serial investor in Bitcoin, estimated that BTC could reach $195,000 by the end of 2024.
Posting his analysis and assumptions on X (formerly Twitter), Krueger selected the 2024 cycle: to report That;
“We’re at $70,000 and a market cap of $1.4 trillion.
We’re likely to see another $50 billion in inflows this year (ETFs plus stock markets)
With a multiplier of 50 that is $2.5 trillion.
Taking us to a market cap of $3.9 trillion or $195K BTC.
I think this is the base case for this year. It could be higher.”
Krueger stressed that the 2024 bull market cycle was primarily driven by ETF flows from the traditional finance sector (TradFi).
“But the real story is Bitcoin ETFs. TradFi meets Bitcoin.”
However, he noted that BTC could expand to $500,000 within two years before a nasty crash.
Krueger did not explicitly state what would cause the crash if BTC reached $500,000. However, he believed that the halving event would reduce profits price drop but not necessarily driving a huge rally.
“I think the halving paves the way for the rally because it reduces the amount dumped in a 4x rally.”
Put differently, the BTC maximalist views ETF flows as a crucial price driver compared to the supply shock caused by the halving.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin fell below $70,000 and retested the $68,000 area before recovering $69,000.
Rekt Capital, a crypto market analyst, claimed this move confirms a breakout after BTC recorded a weekly candlestick close of $71.2K, above the previous cycle’s all-time high of $69K.