- BTC ‘basic trading’ exploded after the September recovery.
- The rising base premium was driven by hedge funds.
Bitcoin [BTC] Basic trading, where investors buy spot BTC ETF and sell CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures contracts at higher prices to capture the profit from the price difference, is back in a big way.
The basic trading premium, usually favored by hedge funds and asset managers, doubled in October. This happened when BTC crossed $70,000, as shown by the Futures Annualized Rolling Basis metric.
In mid-September the premium fell to 6.2%; however, on October 31, it was 12%. That’s about a 2x increase in a few weeks.
Source: Glassnode
The interest rate cuts by the Fed and their consequences
According to James Van Straten, a BTC analyst, the rising BTC basis trading could be linked to continued interest rate cuts by the Fed.
He declared that lower interest rates made basic BTC trading a better option with higher returns than traditional opportunities.
“This is more than double the current effective Fed funds rate of 5%, in addition to a further reduction by the Fed over the next three months. I assume that the use of ‘basic trading’ will only increase.”
During the height of the market froth in March, when BTC recorded its all-time high (ATH) of $73.7K, the premium was over 14%. This was followed by a financing rate that exceeded 30%.
Compared to current figures, the euphoria has not crept into the market and signals an overheated scenario, said Mathew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck. He said,
“Previous BTC spikes coincided with rising bounties for perpetrators, and that is hardly the case today. Additionally, current spot volumes are at half of March/April, indicating substantially less panic buying by retail participants – a welcome observation for continued strength.”
Source: K33 Research
That said, total BTC Open Interest (OI) interest rose to an ATH of $43 billion, dominated by CME futures of $12.69 billion. This indicated great interest from institutions.
However, CME Futures’ market positioning showed that hedge funds were driving the rising basis trading premium.
According to Het Blok factshedge funds (blue line) had a net short position of $6.84 billion, indicating massive hedging against BTC’s price decline.
Source: Het Blok
By extension, this also broadens the base between spot BTC and futures prices and could attract even more players.
However, a sharp drop in premium could indicate bearish sentiment and a possible pullback in BTC. At the time of writing, BTC was valued at $72.2K, up 13% in October.
