Bitcoin is approaching a MVRV ratio level that has historically been in line with the market’s “undervaluation,” according to CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan, as traders look for signs that a four-month decline from the October 2025 all-time high is shifting from distribution to accumulation.
Is Bitcoin Undervalued?
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“After reaching its all-time high in October 2025, Bitcoin has been declining for about four months and is now approaching the undervalued zone,” he wrote. “In general, Bitcoin is considered undervalued when the MVRV ratio falls below 1. The current value is around 1.1, which can be seen as close to the undervalued zone.”
The MVRV framing matters because the metric tends to compress towards 1 around earlier cycle lows. The chart shared alongside the post shows the ratio at around 1.10, highlighting previous dips below 1.0 around the lows.
Crypto Dan cautioned that traders should not assume that the current setup will square perfectly with previous price declines, especially since the previous progress looked different in terms of valuation metrics. “
However, unlike previous cycles, it is necessary to recognize that Bitcoin did not rise sharply into the overvalued zone during the uptrend in this cycle. Accordingly, the pattern of decline may also look different than in previous bottom zones, so it seems prudent to prepare for that possibility in our response.”
That caveat became the focus of a brief back-and-forth response. One user, onlyus8x, suggested that if Bitcoin were to reach its all-time high in this cycle more than three times faster than before, the downturn could also disappear faster – “could winter pass three times faster too?”
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Crypto Dan returned to a simple speed analogy and responded, “Because there are differences from your past, I personally set the criteria differently than in previous down cycles by also assessing these things extensively.”
Mayer Multiple and the 200-week MA
A special one after from analyst Will Clemente pointed to two long-watched price-based benchmarks that are also hitting historically constructive margins. “Throughout Bitcoin’s lifespan, we have seen two indicators continue to be the best bottom signals in the global market: the Mayer multiple (distance from the 200-day moving average) and the 200-week moving average,” Clemente wrote. “Both are clearly in long-term accumulation territory.”
The charts he shared show a Mayer Multiple of around 0.60, alongside a backtest table showing previous instances where the indicator fell to around that level. The same image placed Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average near $57,926, with Bitcoin about 15% above it and noting that it “hasn’t reached that mark yet” in the current drawdown.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $67,277.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com