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Bitcoin experts were abuzz as President-elect Donald Trump lashed out at the Federal Reserve’s current policies, calling interest rates “way too high” despite persistent inflationary pressures. “We inherit a difficult situation from the outgoing administration,” Trump said at his Mar-a-Lago club, adding that officials “seem to be trying everything to make it harder” for his new team.
The blunt comments, coming less than two weeks before Trump’s inauguration, have fueled expectations of a possible shift in US monetary policy — and fueled speculation of a boost to Bitcoin and other risk assets in the new year .
The 2017 Trump Playbook: Dollar ‘Too Strong’, Bitcoin Up?
While the economic and geopolitical landscape has changed since Trump’s first term, some market watchers see parallels with his 2017 rhetoric when he denounced a U.S. dollar he deemed “too strong,” a stance that preceded a notable decline in the currency. The US Dollar Index (DXY) peaked around 104 in early January 2017, but began a downward trend that continued in early 2018, bottoming out around 98.
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This sharp move in the dollar coincided with a broader risk environment, leading to rallies in the stock markets, as well as in the Bitcoin and crypto markets. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), received a direct assignment comparison on X.
“The last time Trump said something was ‘too high’ it was the dollar – in January 2017, just days before his inauguration,” Bittel declared, sharing: “Here’s what he said: ‘Our companies can’t them compete. now because our currency is too strong. And it kills us.”
Strikingly, Trump last year also called the recent strength an “enormous burden on American companies.” Bittel further argued: “Trump understands the impact of a strong dollar – and the same logic applies to high interest rates. They suppress exports, hurt corporate profits and slow economic growth.”
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Speaking about the impact on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, Bittel concluded: “What happened next? Well, the dollar began a significant decline, paving the way for one of the most crucial macro moves we’ve seen in years – leading to a collapse in risk assets. Déjà vu? I think so. Let’s see how it turns out.”
Bittel isn’t the only expert to speculate that the DXY may have already peaked, mirroring the 2017 top pattern. Steve Donzé, Deputy CIO for Multi Asset at Pictet Asset Management Japan, shared a broad audience discussed graph on X, with the comment “On time. Ready for pushback,” while recent DXY moves are overlapped with the coin’s trajectory in early 2017. The chart suggests a similar pattern that could foreshadow renewed dollar weakness in the coming weeks.
In a separate post, financial analyst Silver Surfer (@SilverSurfer_23) pointed out an eerie timing overlap: “DXY peaked on January 3, 2017 – 18 days before Trump’s inauguration. It appears that DXY peaked on January 2, 2025 – 19 days before Trump’s inauguration.” He characterized the parallel as “crazy history repeating itself,” explaining that he sees a connection between the DXY’s path before both inaugurations.
Such analogies fuel speculation that a repeated dollar decline could usher in an environment that favors risky assets. Should the dollar indeed enter a new downtrend – as it did in 2017-2018 – Bitcoin could see a wave of renewed liquidity and speculative appetite.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $94,950.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com