Key Takeaways
What’s Next for the Post-Fed Bitcoin Rate Decision?
Analysts were divided; some predicted a rally towards $160,000, while others warned of limited impact due to weak macro data.
Can BTC ETF inflows fuel the recovery?
This could be likely, especially if the pace of demand improves, according to Glassnode.
Bitcoin [BTC] has recovered, but slowly since the October 10 flash crash. Part of the latest recovery has been fueled by the improving macro front and renewed demand from institutions.
For example, over the past four consecutive trading days, the Spot BTC ETFs have seen inflows.
And demand has risen steadily from $20 million in daily net inflows to $202 million as of Oct. 29. In total, the products have raised more than $460 million in recent days.
Source: SoSo value
Unfortunately, the BTC price failed to rise above $117,000 despite renewed demand from ETFs. According to Glassnode, the slow recovery could be due to the pace of ETF inflows.
The on-chain analyses added,
“The influx continues <1k BTC/dag, aanzienlijk lager dan >2.5k BTC/day at the start of the big rallies of this cycle. Demand is recovering, but not with the intensity of recent rallies.”
Source: Glassnode
But sluggish demand wasn’t the only thing hindering BTC’s strong recovery. Major players continue to dump their BTC holdings.
The sell-off in long-term bonds continues
CryptoQuant facts showed that Long-Term Holders (LTH), or those who have held BTC for more than 6 months, dumped more than 325,000 BTC in October alone. That would translate into a sell-off of more than $35 billion, assuming an average price of $110,000 per BTC.
Source: CryptoQuant
According to CryptoQuant analyst JA Marrtunn, this was the sharpest “monthly decline since July 2025.”
Still, the positive macro outlook, expected Fed easing cycle and end of quantitative tightening (QT) could dent liquidity and push risky assets higher.
Differing opinions on the impact of the Fed
Even Fundstrat CIO Tom Lee even predicted that the markets might collection after the Fed’s interest rate decision. The macrocatalyst could do that lift According to some analysts, BTC could reach $160,000.
But not all market watchers were bullish. Singapore-based crypto trading desk QCP Capital warned that the Fed’s interest rate decision could be a “non-event” due to a lack of key data to gauge inflation and labor markets.
QCP Capital Analysts added that digital asset treasuries (DATs) fear could accelerate sell-off risk.
“If discounts continue, DATs could be forced into asset buybacks financed by asset sales, potentially adding a new wave of supply to already thin markets.”
For its part, the well-known trader has Cryp Nuevo projected that BTC could drop around $112K-$111K before the recovery would be extended.