Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating a trading range between $60,000 and $73,000, entering what analytics platform CryptoQuant describes as “the most frustrating phase in the cycle.”
According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV, Bitcoin is in a period marked by heightened uncertainty, with market signals indicating hesitation rather than firm conviction.
Bear market signals
Three key on-chain metrics point to a psychologically challenging phase for market participants, specifically Apparent Demand, the CryptoQuant Bull Market Cycle Indicator, and the Long-Term Holder SOPR.
After the most recent sell-off, apparent demand initially showed signs of recovery, suggesting opportunistic buyers stepped in to take advantage of the recent price decline. However, this rebound was short-lived and quickly retreated into negative territory.
Moreno too emphasized the absence of sustained buying pressure in the Bitcoin market, which he said shows that market players are still cautious and hesitant to aggressively accumulate BTC at current prices.
The CryptoQuant Bull Market Cycle Indicator, as seen in the chart below, further reinforces this sentiment as it currently marks a phase typically associated with bear market consolidation.
Additionally, the analyst noted that the behavioral dynamics at play can impact the cost base of different market cohorts. He claims that if short-term holders realize losses or switch to longer-term holders, Bitcoin’s realized prices could fall.
Finally, the Long-Term Holder SOPR measure is beginning to show that even seasoned investors are starting to realize losses, which fall below the crucial threshold of 1. Historically, this has tended to occur in the later stages of bear markets, when prolonged uncertainty erodes even the most persistent beliefs in the asset’s value.
Bitcoin sees a resistance level at $72,000 – $73,000
In the context of geopolitical events, Bitcoin has shown resilience and outperformed gold and traditional stocks during the recent US-Israeli attack on Iran.
Crypto stocks have also benefited, given their ability to trade at all hours, unhindered by banking schedules. Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told Fortune:
Crypto’s 24/7 structure is increasingly an advantage for the asset class. As the conflict with Iran escalated this weekend, crypto native markets were the only place where global risk trading was possible, a structural advantage that traditional markets cannot replicate.
Moreover, Bitcoin has seen a positive increase of around 4% following President Trump’s comments suggesting that the war may be coming to an end. Trump declared, “I think the war is pretty much complete,” adding that Iran “has nothing left in a military sense.”
While Bitcoin is trying to consolidate near $70,000 at the time of writing, it is also trying to break its recent local high at the $72,000-$73,000 resistance zone, which was tested without success last week.
Selby emphasized that a sustained close above this threshold on significant volume could shift the narrative from just a short squeeze to a true momentum recovery.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com