Important collection restaurants
What do analysts expect for Bitcoin in the midst of the closure?
The views were mixed, with options skewing bearish and BTC covered with $ 118k resistance despite spiking up to $ 116k.
Is a Q4 rally still possible for BTC?
Yes, according to Swissblock a local soil could soon be formed.
Bitcoin [BTC] And the broader crypto market is confronted with uncertainty after the closure of the US government started. The legislators do not agree with the financing accounts, so that traders in long -term gridlock had the price.
From the moment of the press, the market expected the impasse to extend for 15 days, according to the forecast site Polymarket. But the short -term prospects were mixed according to analysts.
Since 2013, BTC has witnessed five shutdowns, but only gathered in three.
Source: X
However, Gold came to a new high and, however, underlined a short -term market uncertainty when the closure began. On the contrary, S&P Futures slipped lower. That raises the question: will BTC gold or US shares follow?
BTC Short -term front views
BTC spoke to $ 116k, at the time of printing, after the to block. However, it was uncertain whether it could extend the recovery in the short term.
According to Greg Magadini, director of the option platform, Amber Data, another dip in BTC was possible in the coming days.
Source: Ambdata
He mentioned somewhat negative option prices (Risk Reversal Skew, RR-SKEW) for the short-term expiry date for 1 week and 1 months tenors. It meant more demand for Putten (Beerarish bets, hedging) about calls (bullish bets) in the short term.
Magadini added”
“The RR-Skew is only” leaning “negative. For me this remains the piece that will go into the coming week or two. Many reasons to be defensive here and in my opinion crypto options are not busy for defensive trade.”
Concludes wrinkle effects
In the meantime, an extensive closure would slow down the American job report on 3 October and make it more difficult to gauge the labor market.
According to some analysts, the delay can encourage the FED to keep the interest rates stable in the next meeting planned for the end of October.
In general, this could spoil “Uptober” hopes. Yet Swissblock analysts said that Q4 still looked structurally positive.
She quoted Relatively non-realized profit in the short term a level that is approaching a level that rather marked local soils.
Source: Glassnode/Swissblock
On the price diagrams, BTC has the losses that were seen at the end of September. But a convincing uptrend up to $ 120k and higher can only be confirmed if it comes above the high of the previous month ($ 118k).
Otherwise, a different price rejection can drag BTC lower to $ 112k or $ 107k- $ 109k support zone.
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView