The last weekly memorandum of Ostium Research was opened with Bitcoin under pressure after a rapid sale in the new week, in which “a mass-liquidation event” was described that the price pushed as low as $ 111,761, after rejection near resistance in the middle of $ 117,000.
The team framed the drawing as part of a previously marked “Weakness window … until the beginning of October”, while emphasizing the higher time-up trend remains intact unless the most important weekly levels fail. The reportPublished on September 22, 2025, describes both the technical map and the event calendar that could arrange the pad dependence in the following different sessions.
Bitcoin crashes up to $ 99,000
On the weekly graph, Ostium notes on last week’s consolidation around the opening of Augustus and a wick in “Key resistance … for $ 117.5k”, followed by an almost marginal under the opening. Price campaign in the early week then wore the prize under recovered support in the $ 111k handle, where the analysts “are liquidated more than $ 1.6 billion in longs so far.”
Two structural bend zones anchor the bearish risks: “Acceptance below $ 107k on a weekly closure would open more disadvantage to $ 99k”, while at the top “The Weekly High at $ 115.3k … at least some time later in the week.”
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On the daily period of time, the August is open for $ 115.7k the hinge that the market must recover to recover the momentum. As the authors put it, “that Augustus opened for $ 115.7k [is] An important level to support bullishness. “
The immediate battlefield is the earlier of all time at $ 112k, where “a recurrent of $ 112k as support” would be likely to tilt to a higher low and Force Shorts to cover in a movement back by $ 115.7k. However, their basicase is for extra heel “between $ 112k $ 115k for a second push lower under the lowest of today”, which will determine whether the market undermines the swing of June at $ 107k or marks a bottom faster.
Tactically, Ostium explains both long and short triggers with unusual clarity. On the long side: “A sweeps of today at the beginning of this week and then a recovery of $ 112k as support,” driving momentum “back in the weekly high”. On the short side they drive what they call “a really nice short setup … a sharp V-omkering … Back above the weekly High … before … rejecting and breaking back under $ 115.3k”, which would then focus on “$ 112k and lower.” In other words, a squeeze-then-fade path that punishes both late lungs and late shorts.
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Positioning and derivatives width round the blueprint in the short term. The Note shares Snapshots of 3-months annual base, Bitcoin versus Alcoin open interest and a week/one month liquidation cards, underline how quickly liquidity bags can turn in thin conditions in magnets.
This informs their expectations in the short term that “the next leg lower or second liquidation event this week [could] Be a big chance, ”followed by a retest of $ 115.3k that will function as the judgment of the tape about whether another Down-Pije or a Bears trapum is reversed in the end of the quarter.
The position of the house remains probabilistic instead of doctrinal. If $ 107k fails on a weekly closure, the weakness star can extend to “$ 99k”; If it retains-and especially if the market can convert “$ 115.7k into support”-the narrative story remains alive. In the words of the authors, for Ethereum “nothing about this higher time frame structure or momentum is currently Giga-Bearish”, and, according to analogy, the structure of Bitcoin this week is best assessed by the reaction around $ 111.7k $ 112k this week.
Whether the flush of today appears to be an introduction to capitulation or the fall before new highlights, the Bottom line of Ostium is clear: “We will move much higher from the beginning of October” unless those weekly thresholds are accepted lower.
At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 113.002.
Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com