Bitcoin (BTC) has introduced a critical phase in its cycle, so that analysts debate or the long -term Bull Run is finally approaching his peak. With volatility and historical cycle data that indicate a potentially explosive outbreak, Markt experts will look closely in the coming weeks for signals that reveal The current position of the market And future direction.
Bitcoin Bull Run cycle is approaching the endgame
Market analyst, ‘cryptobird’ has warned that The Bitcoin Bull Run could end within 30 days. In a thread on X Social Media, he noted That this current cycle has now been reached 1,038 days since the bottom of November 2022, which corresponds to 97.5% of a standard cycle. Historically, the last 2.5% of Bitcoin’s Bull Runs has the Most dramatic price increasesThe often catching both retail and institutional investors overwhelmed.
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Research The bottom of the bicycle-To-top graph, the current market structure of BTC is closely in line with that of earlier cycles, where it has experienced its largest gears just before completing the cycle. The black line that represents the current process 2022-2025 shows Bitcoin Consolidate After strong profits, just like the Cycli 2016 and 2020 before their peaks.
From a technical point of view, the expert notes that BTC acts an unusually tight 5% range in between $ 110,500 and $ 116,000, signaling heavy compression. However, the cryptocurrency recently broke again and is now slightly above $ 109,600.
Cryptobird emphasizes key levels: 200 weeks SMA at $ 53,111, which acts as a macro support in the long term, the 50-week SMA near $ 99,000 as the bullmarkt floor and the SPX correlation (-0.19). The analyst explained that short -term structures remain mixed, with High Time Frame (HTF) Support Still intact for $ 111,296. However, compression has created conditions where every outbreak could set the tone for the rest of the year.
In addition, the current trend framework (CTF) is $ 114,916, signaling Bearish periods. The price is currently being attracted to the 200-day BPRO at $ 112,250, and if Bitcoin can hold on to it, Bulls can remain control.
Halling Math signals definitive BTC breakdown
His analysis continued, cryptobird emphasized That bitcoin is now 523 days After the lightingPlace the sturdy in the historic “peak window” of 518-580 days after each halving event. Every previous major bike stop has taken place in this exact reach, which suggests that Bitcoin enters the statistical Sweet Spot for the last move.
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Add to the setup is the present of the market Volatility Squeeze. The average where range (ATR) has fallen to 2,250, the lowest reading of 2025, while 50-day volatility is 2,800. The analyst notes that such a compressed volatility rarely lasts and usually precedes a violent outbreak within two to four weeks.
Institutions also seem to position accordingly, with Bitcoin ETF streams that show distribution. Sentiment -Indicators add another layer, because the anxiety and greed index is on 44, indicates rise Instead of euphoria. In the meantime, RSI is neutral at 46, which suggests that the momentum has cooled but has not collapsed.
Despite September reputation as the weakest month of BitcoinCryptobird notes that the month has won 4.4% to date and defined its historical decrease of 6.2%. This anomaly, combined with October, which is usually seen as a green month, could be the scene for a bullish Q4.
Featured image of Pixabay, graph of TradingView.com