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Bitcoin can break out – but not yet celebrate it. Crypto analyst Cristian Chifoi warns that the current movement is a misleading arrangement that will probably catch bullish traders before Bitcoin finally stabs $ 160,000. In his latest YouTube video entitled “Bitcoin breaks out! But why is it bad?”, Chifoi dismisses the optimism around the recent price action of Bitcoin, with the argument that this rally is not the start of a real bull run, but a temporary Nalfuur that is designed to mislead.
Do not trust the Bitcoin pump
“From a technical point of view, this can mean a real outbreak, retest and then continuation,” Chifoi admits. “But in my opinion this is a false outbreak that can reach a new shallow of all time, maybe $ 113,000, maybe $ 120,000 to something like 10 to July 12,-this we will return to this channel before July 20.” His thesis depends on Bitcoin Seasonality, a pattern that he has investigated in previous videos, which suggests that the real macro -pivot will arrive until later in the month. “I am Bullisher from July 20 to the beginning of September,” he says.
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Chifoi argues that retail traders will probably accumulate during the Breakout -Hertestpass, only to be eliminated if market makers use the liquidity to reverse the trend. “The majority of retail traders would go on a retest for a long time. The market makers will get their money,” he warns, a fall that Bitcoin can drag to levels near $ 97,000 before the real Uptrend is resumed.
His analysis extends beyond simple technicals. Chifoi points to macro -economic sentiment and FED policy as a crucial context, in particular emphasize that the cutbacks would actually be a bearish signal -does not believe Bullish as general. “Interesting this year would not be bullish at all,” he holds full. “It is not Powell that decides, it is the bond market that concludes when the tariff reductions have to come … and when that happens, it is because they have to be cut into panic.”
Chifoi emphasizes that the best scenario for bulls is actually not speed reductions, at least for the time being. “Just keep the rates at 4.5% perhaps until the end of the year. If this happens, I am 100% sure that the market will get higher and higher before this starts to happen.”
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In addition to Bitcoin, Chifoi predicts a synchronized movement over the wider cryptomarkt as soon as the Pivot takes place of July 20. He emphasizes Ethereum, XRP, Defi-Tokens such as CRV and ISO-conforming coins such as IOTA, ADA and Quan as potential beneficiaries. “Bitcoin would drag all crypto space with it,” he says, adding that older players such as Filecoin and Polkadot could also catch an offer.
In the medium term
Looking further ahead, Chifoi describes in the coming period as a “stablecoin super cycle”, with Defi projects and yield-generating protocols positioned to get the most out of the hunger from Wall Street to yield. “In Crypto, only Defi projects give you yields,” he explains. “Wall Street cooks for yields.”
He also confirms his macro thesis that the current financial system is on schedule to be replaced, which compares the transition to the move from gold to Fiat. “After 100 years of this exact system, this must be replaced by another system with liquidity in it,” he says, which proposes a cryptographic bank view.
Despite the short -term turbulence that he expects, Chifoi will remain bullish in the long term. His price target of $ 160,000 for Bitcoin by the beginning of September reflects a belief in accelerated expansion – called by seasonal influences, delayed policy spivots and wider acceptance.
While closing, Chifoi reminds his audience to find out and trust the heyday signals. By referring to Bollinger tires on the two-month graph, he notes the beginning of another expansion phase comparable to the end of 2020. “Then the Berenmarkt starts,” he warns. But until then the ride could be fast – and extremely volatile.
“The next time we cut [rates]It is a big problem and something is wrong, “he concludes.” For now we just want the cutbacks to go higher for longer. “
At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 108,848.
Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com