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In the ongoing debate about the Bitcoin market trajectory, two prominent crypto analysts have shared contrasting facilities on X, which underlines the distributed sentiment of the community. Although one claims that a drastic decline remains possible, the other states that the worst falls in the market has already expired – a remarkable chance of 87.5%.
Bitcoin is in trouble?
Crypto -analyst Doctor Profit (@drprofitcrypto) posted On X and two potential paths set out for Bitcoin: “There are two scenarios: A) Betitid to 68-74K region in normal market, B) Full crash to 50k in Black Swan event.”
He gave no specific probability for both outcome, but emphasized that a Black Swan event – a term used to describe a rare, unexpected event that can drastically influence the markets – can be excluded. Although he noticed that such an extraordinary decline was previously unlikely, he admits that recent shifts in the macro landscape can leave room for it: “Take your bets, I would say that a black swan event was very unlikely in recent months, but now I would not exclude it, I would rather welcome it.”
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In direct contrast, crypto analyst Astronomer (@Stronomer_Zero) reacted with a more bullish prospect and claimed that the soil is already behind us. He referred to a Track Record from Bitcoin -Kijzingen around meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and claimed that it works “14 out of 16 times”, or about 87.5% of the time. “No guarantees, but a chance of 87.5%, granted the graph below and all the confluences that I already presented. So far so good. “
His approach is based on mapping price movements in the voorship of FOMC dates, and notes that markets often prizes in interest decisions (and related news) before official announcements. The method of astronomer argues that Bitcoin usually finds local soils in a window that extends from a maximum of five “2D bars” before a FOMC dates to the day of the meeting itself.
“The only thing it is required to run on a daily (or 2 daily in my case to keep the graph clean) time frame, to set all the dates that FOMC meeting appeared, and see what the price did. This shows that the price indeed tends to return when time is approaching in FOMC. The reservation is that the price reverses before or at the last minute, directly on the FOMC day, ”writes the analyst.
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He points out that the next FOMC meeting is planned for March 19, which means that the soil -if the historical pattern applies -should appear later than that date: “Works almost every time, 14 out of 16 times in fact (or 87.5% of the time) … the time difference happens the soil versus de FOMC day is usually 0 to 5 2D -beams. Given the next FOMC is March 19, that means that the low is on that day and the earliest on March 5. “
To strengthen his argument, astronomer points out what he regards as “fear of peak” in the market. He considers raised pessimism and “warning posts” by established traders as typical signals that a rebound could be threatening: “In terms of sentiment, fear peaks to hilarious levels. Even” renowned “traders protect their reputation […] I don’t blame someone’s methods, but I consider it a great sign of a bottom. “
At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 83,277.
Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com