Journalist
Posted:
At first glance, the data seemed troubling. The numbers show that long-term holders (LTHs) are selling Bitcoin [BTC] heavy, with concerns over whether BTC was starting to crack.
But a closer look will tell you more.
Analysts now say the spike was distorted, meaning the story surrounding Bitcoin’s latest moves could be much less dramatic than thought.
A story that falls apart
Claims that Bitcoin LTHs are dumping coins are exaggerated.
A recent post by analyst Darkfost on X said the spike in selling pressure was largely due to a technical disruption.
In late November, Coinbase moved nearly 800,000 BTC, destroying old UTXOs with long-term holders and creating new ones as Bitcoin traded around $85,000.
Source:
The recent internal realignment distorted on-chain data, giving the impression that LTHs were selling more than they actually did.
Once Coinbase-related transactions are taken out of the equation, the data shows that LTHs are selling at a steady, normal pace, consistent with previous cycles.
In addition…
When the NVT Golden Cross enters deeply undervalued territory, it has preceded accumulation. We are now seeing a similar move, with the indicator climbing back to neutral levels.
Source: CryptoQuant
The market is undergoing a transition towards a more balanced valuation. In previous cycles, this pattern was accompanied by more stable demand and healthier price developments.
While it doesn’t guarantee immediate gains, it does show that the current environment is more consistent with accumulation.
What next for BTC
Source: TradingView
Bitcoin’s RSI was near oversold levels, and show past data that such dips often occur before relief meetings. However, price action remains below the major EMAs, so bullishness has not yet fully recovered.
Source:
Analysts such as Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research argue that 2026 may remain uncertain, with broad price ranges showing the current ambiguity.
Bitcoin’s market is maturing, with more institutional involvement and use as a hedge. While it may be difficult to stay above $100,000 in the short term, the long-term outlook is positive.
This is evident from their bold prediction of $250,000 by the end of next year!
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin LTHs are selling normally and not panicking.
- Indicators and institutional activity point to a maturing market. There is potential for $250,000 BTC by the end of 2026.