- Bitcoin is likely to bounce out of the $41k support zone.
- Market sentiment tilted in favor of the sellers and the MVRV ratio continued to decline.
In a recent post on X, data provider Santiment noted that there was a bearish shift in sentiment around the time of the Bitcoin news [BTC] spot ETF approval helped mark a local top. The 16.9% price drop from last week’s high to the $40.6k level was accompanied by a shift in market sentiment.
AMBCrypto looked at some Bitcoin metrics and its liquidation levels to figure out whether a bullish reversal or a bearish continuation is more likely.
The MVRV ratio falls below the low seen at the end of October
During the October 2023 rally, Santiment’s 180-day MVRV ratio shot up. On December 6, it peaked at 37.88%. This indicated a potentially overvalued asset. Since then, the benchmark has been in decline.
A few days after the approval of the spot ETF, on January 13, it fell below 17.66%. BTC’s MVRV was previously at this point on October 28.
At the time of writing, it stood at 10.88%, which was still positive, but it indicated that holders were increasingly choosing to sell some of their BTC holdings.
Source: Santiment
Weighted sentiment hit a six-month high between January 9 and 11, but has fallen dramatically since then. It was a similar story for Bitcoin social volume. This suggested that the short-term hype had died down.
The ETF approvals led to a sell-the-news event, from which the market has yet to recover. The Open Interest has been declining since December 5. The short peaks in the intermediate period were accompanied by short-term price breakouts, which were quickly corrected.
The accumulation of whales showed that long-term investors still have hope
BTC supply distribution analysis showed that addresses holding 10,000 to 1 million BTC continued to increase their holdings over the past two months. Meanwhile, the 0-100 BTC holding addresses started selling in the first week of January.
Source: Santiment
Once again, this activity indicated that some holders were choosing to take profits as BTC approaches the 50,000 mark.
Traders could hope for another recovery from the $41,000 mark
Since December 11, BTC has tested the lows of the range at $40.6k six times. Each of them saw a rebound of different magnitudes. Although BTC has a bearish structure and downward momentum, the chances of a recovery were there.
This was also why the reach remained remarkable, despite the two outbreaks in recent weeks. They were quickly reversed and the levels within the range remained meaningful.
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
A drop below $40.2k would invalidate the idea of a bounce. The OBV can also help debunk this idea. At the time of going to press, the index remained stuck at the lower support level at the end of October. A drop below that would show that sellers remained dominant.
In this scenario, BTC would likely slide towards the next support zone at $37.5k.
AMBCrypto also looked at Hyblock’s liquidation level data. Our conclusion is that the market is too heavily in favor of the bears to withstand the decline.
The liquidation levels of $42.4k and $44k are $181 million and $143 million respectively.
Source: Hyblok
The Cumulative Liq Levels Delta was also hugely negative, showing that short liquidation levels far exceeded long ones.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price forecast 2024-25
Therefore, a jump to these two levels is possible.
In particular, the $42.4k and $44.3k levels are ones to watch out for. They are the middle class and the high resistance respectively.