Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other advice and is solely the opinion of the author.
- ApeCoin has a strong downtrend in a higher time frame
- The recent rally was not sustainable due to a lack of demand for the token
ApeCoin [APE] posted a strong rebound from the $1.1 support level last week, but these gains were erased within three days. The recent losses came after Bitcoin’s [BTC] rejection of $28.5k and was in line with APE’s downtrend in higher time frames.
Read ApeCoins [APE] Price forecast 2023-24
A recent analysis of ApeCoin’s price movement by AMBCrypto revealed that the $1.09 was an HTF support level. However, the increase in the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) was pointed to as evidence that we could see a price drop in the last 48 hours.
The return to the $1.1 support highlighted the bullish vulnerability
Source: APE/USDT on TradingView
At the time of writing, ApeCoin’s market structures on both the four-hour chart and the one-day chart were bearish. A move above $1.37 would have reversed the daily bullish, but the rejection at $1.3 quickly ended those hopes.
The decline in APE prices was accompanied by a sudden southward decline in On-Balance Volume (OBV). This showed the strong selling pressure. This showed that investors were eager to book profits or limit their losses after the recent rally.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was also below the neutral 50 mark, noting a trend shift in favor of the bears. APE’s decline from $1.3 to $1.09 was used to plot a series of Fibonacci retracement levels (light yellow). It highlighted that the $1.2-$1.26 is a zone where short sellers can try to enter the market and target the southern Fib extension levels.
Coinalyze data shines a spotlight on the depth of bearish pressure
Source: Coinalyse
On October 2, when prices peaked at $1.3, Open Interest was $68.15 million. Since then, OI has dropped to $54 million. Short-term bulls taking profits were a likely factor contributing to the declining OI. Another example was last week’s bulls that had to close as prices turned against them.
Realistic or not, here is APE’s market cap in BTC terms
The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has been falling since mid-September and was a key piece of evidence that the rally was not driven by real demand. Until this trend changes in the short term, bulls may be wary of opening long positions.