A new Bitcoin price prediction has emerged following a long-term technical analysis shared on social media platform X by crypto analyst Leshka.eth. The analysis compares Bitcoin’s current structure on the weekly time frame to the 2021 market peak, showing how price behavior repeats an identical pattern.
Based on how Bitcoin has responded to a rising multi-year channel in previous cycles, the analysis proposes a projection of how Bitcoin could change. ready for a powerful corrective move that brings the price down to just $30,000.
Bitcoin weekly structure is about to break
Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the weekly candlestick time chart shows that the leading cryptocurrency has been trading with higher highs and higher lows since 2018. Interestingly, this trend of higher highs has led to repeated interaction with a rising resistance trendline that has defined each major cycle top.
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As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin pushes into this upper limit during every bull market, only to be rejected once the momentum fades. These rejection points have been clearly marked in multiple cycles, including the 2017 and 2021 peaks. This repeated failure is a defining characteristic of Bitcoin’s macro-exhaustion cycles after prolonged upward expansion.
Bitcoin re-entered the same long-term trendline when it broke to new all-time highs in October 2025 before stalling and rolling over. Bitcoin’s price failed to stay above the trendline and has corrected by about 30% since then. The leading cryptocurrency now trading below $90,000and this technical outlook introduces the possibility that the current decline is not yet complete and could extend further.
Bitcoin weekly candlestick chart. Source: @leshka_eth on X
Bitcoin Crash Extension to $30,000?
The chart also highlights the depth of previous bear market declines after Bitcoin was rejected from this long-term structure. After the 2017 cycle top, Bitcoin fell approximately 84.99% from peak to trough. After the 2021 high, Bitcoin fell again by around 77.47% before finding a bottom near the lower limit of the broader ascending channel.
Based on the current situation, the expected downward movement on the chart is approximately 72.86%. Applying a drop of that magnitude from recent cycle highs puts Bitcoin’s potential bottom at around $30,000.
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Interestingly enough, Grok AI offered one more optimistic interpretation of Bitcoin’s short-term prospects, based on answers to questions under the same technical post. According to Grok, aggregated insights from sources like CNBC, Reddit and Forbes suggest that the chance of Bitcoin falling into the $30,000 to $40,000 range is relatively low, estimated at around 15% to 25% by bearish cycle models.
On the other hand, many analysts are instead expect higher price floors, often above $50,000. Some long term projections extend $200,000, with names like Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao predicting $200,000 and Tom Lee predicts $250,000 by 2026.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com