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Bitcoin has continued to float above $ 100,000 in recent days, and the price promotion has stabilized in the Wake or recent market voltages And despite inflow into Bitcoin ETFs.
A new analysis shared by Crypto market commentator Gert Van Lagen suggests that this current phase precedes an explosive movement that is comparable to that in previous market cycles. Supporting his prediction with historical data and the Aviv ratio graph of Glassnode, the analyst noted that the current on-chain structure happens earlier The most important meetings of Bitcoin in earlier bull markets.
Aviv ratio flashes a well -known pattern for the market top
Bitcoin’s Price volatility has cooled down somewhat Since the first rise in a new of all time high above $ 111,800 in May, and the latest candlestick structure suggests that it may be preparing for Another leg higher.
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To the social media platform X, Gert van Lagen Unveiled a Bitcoin pricing forecast This is all about the true market disorder statistics known as the Aviv ratio. This orange -colored line on the graph follows a specific deviation from Bitcoin’s market behavior and has always exceeded a red line that indicates +3 standard deviations on or just before cycles.
The current AVIV behavior can be compared with earlier prize points before market picks in earlier cycles. In 2013, for example, the Aviv ratio marked a big rally when Bitcoin acted near $ 200, shortly before the price pushed past $ 1,200. In 2017, the metric carried in the same way when Bitcoin traded at $ 3,700 and later reached a peak near $ 20,000. The current AVIV ratio can also be compared to when Bitcoin was priced at $ 13,000 in the Bull Market Run in 2021, before the rise in a record height of $ 69,000.
According to the analyst, today’s Aviv ratio level is closely tailored to each other to those earlier breakouts in the mid-cycle. The current ratio has not yet exceeded the Red +3σ line, which the analyst refers as the Cycle Top trigger. As such, the current reading suggests that Bitcoin may be in the early phase of a large bull expansion of the Stiermarkt. If history repeats itself, a 3x relocation of today’s levels would be a standard price movement in line with earlier price action.
$ 300,000 target in sight if the Aviv behavior applies
Crypto analyst Van Lagen is no longer to ask an immediate top, but his analysis means that Bitcoin could prepare himself A new parabolic increase At the top. With the help of the AVIV model as a reference, a conservative 3x -multiplier on the current Bitcoin price places a possible target of around $ 300,000.
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At the time of writing, Bitcoin is traded at $ 104,997, with 1.4% in the last 24 hours. This decrease has fallen its price from an intraday highlight of $ 106,795 Back to his consolidation range About $ 105,000.
Featured image of Pixabay, graph of TradingView.com