After the fourth Bitcoin halvingRekt Capital, a popular cryptocurrency trader and expert, has provided a compelling story on Bitcoin’s future trajectory, predicting that the crypto asset could hit this bull cycle within the next year. Rekt Capital analysis highlights the possibility that this current cycle could repeat past trends, allowing BTC to post significant gains in the coming months.
Bitcoin could mirror the halving cycle
According to the analyst Bitcoin reached its all-time high within 518 days of the halving in the 2015-2017 cycle. Meanwhile, following the 2019-2021 bull cycle event, the digital asset peaked within 546 days. This suggests that the event has always catalyzed tremendous growth for the leading cryptocurrency asset.
Should the past trend continue, the next bull market top could occur between 518 and 546 days after the recently completed fourth halving, especially around mid-September or mid-October in 2025, according to Rekt Capital.
The analyst noted that Bitcoin is currently accelerating by about 220 days in this cycle. So the longer the time BTC consolidates after this halving, it will be better to resynchronize this current cycle with the previous event cycle.
Rekt Capital also noted that Bitcoin experienced further declines in the three weeks following the halving, according to historical data from 2016. He has labeled the period as the post-halving ‘danger zone’, this is where the potential for downside volatility exists. at the lower end of the reaccumulation range.
In 2016, about 21 days after the event, Bitcoin experienced a prolonged decline of -11% before gaining momentum toward the upside. However, data for 2016 shows that if there is going to be downside volatility around the Re-Accumulation Range Low in this cycle, it could happen in the following fifteen days.
Although the danger zone after the halving ends in 15 days, the 2016 data suggests that some negative volatility may occur in the meantime, potentially reaching the $60,600 Range Low.
Parabolic phase for BTC
It is worth noting that Rekt Capital anticipates a parabolic phase after the reaccumulation phase is completed. During this phase, Bitcoin typically sees massive growth leading to a new all-time high.
In previous halvings, Bitcoin historically consolidated in this reaccumulation range for up to 150 days before eventually entering a parabolic phase. Once BTC emerges from this reaccumulation phase, Rekt Capital expects BTC to see a parabolic upside by September this year if it consolidates within the aforementioned time frame.
At the time of writing, BTC is down over 5% over the past seven days, trading at $62,504. Currently, the market capitalization is down 1.53%, while trading volume has increased by over 22% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
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