After a brutal decline of over 95% from its 2021 peak, Avalanche is now showing the first signs of a possible high-time reversal. With prices stabilizing at a macro level and an emerging Elliott Wave structure emerging on the weekly chart, the current phase could mark a crucial turning point in the broader cycle.
Weekly Elliott wave structure signals macro inflection
AVAX is currently forming an Elliott Wave structure on the weekly chart, trading within a massive descending channel that has remained intact since its all-time high in 2021. The broader structure suggests that the asset is still operating in a long-term corrective phase, but key technical signals are now pointing to a possible turning point on a higher time frame.
According to Crypto Patel, after enduring a brutal cycle correction of over 95%, appears to have completed Avalanche Wave 1 with a macro low of almost $5.67. Price is now in the early stages of a Wave 2 recovery phase, a pivotal moment in the Elliott Wave series that often determines whether a sustained expansion phase can follow.
Structurally, the weekly chart shows a number of remarkable developments. Wave 1 appears to have concluded within the macro low of $8 to $5, creating a potential base of support. At the same time, the price continues to trade within the long-term descending channel that has defined the broader downtrend.
Technically, the chart reflects a clear bearish analysis followed by a retest of the lower trendline, a classic divergence setup. In addition, AVAX conducted a liquidity survey in the weekly demand zone between $8 and $7. Meanwhile, the overall fractal structure also reflects the compression phase we saw in the previous cycle before expansion.
In confirmation, Crypto Patel emphasizes the need for continued weekly strength and expansion back to mid-channel resistance. A decisive move in that direction would strengthen the bullish Wave 2 thesis and signal that the larger recovery structure is beginning to unfold.
Avalanche Upside Roadmap: $33 to $147 in focus
CryptoPatel outlines an ambitious upside roadmap for Avalanche, projecting successive targets at $33, $58, $97, and ultimately $147. Should the broader channel expansion scenario play out in the 2026-2027 period, the price could move towards the upper limit of the multi-year declining channel. From the macro bottom to the ultimate target, that would mean an estimated growth of 2,489%.
The bullish thesis remains intact as long as Avalanche remains above $5.50 at a weekly final support, which marks the Wave 1 low and the last major structural support. Maintaining this level maintains the higher timeframe recovery structure and keeps the Wave 2 continuation scenario in play.
However, a confirmed weekly close below $5.50 would invalidate the setup and signal structural weakness. As it stands, this remains a patience-driven opportunity with a high time frame and an asymmetric risk-reward ratio, a framework best suited to spot accumulation and long-term holders.