A widely followed crypto analyst says one classic indicator could dictate Bitcoin’s (BTC) next price move.
In a new video update, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen tells According to its 803,000 YouTube subscribers, the crypto king’s relative strength index (RSI) — a momentum oscillator used to analyze whether an asset is overbought or oversold — is giving off an “uneasy” vibe.
Looking at the two-week candles, Cowen notes that each Bitcoin price top coincided with the RSI hitting the same downside resistance level – something that happened back in March.
“We can also look at this over a two-week time frame, because I actually think the RSI is a little bit more useful the longer the time frame that you use… If you first look at the two-week RSI there, it’s a a bit of an uneasy feeling…
You can see that the two-week RSI has highlighted this upper trendline – there is a downward trendline tagged near key tops for Bitcoin. We tagged it in 2011 and in 2013, and again later in 2013. We tagged it [also] here in 2017.
Then we also tagged it in January 2021, but then we know that Bitcoin moved a little bit higher even after that, but again, there’s no denying that looking at this probably makes you feel somewhat uneasy. That’s why I say it’s a good idea to stick to the risk metrics.”
However, looking at the monthly chart, Cowen notes the possibility of BTC “making a 2019” in which the RSI initially fails to break the 66 level before successfully reaching the downside resistance level previously called tops.
“I wonder if it will just ramp up here towards the end of the year and then some sort of left-translated peak will come to fruition? Or is it going to bring a 2019 over us, and just fade away for a little bit longer than people think it’s going to happen. Because in 2019 you can see that it was a very nice run, but then the monthly RSI faded from June 2019 to March. So when we reached the top here, it dropped for about nine months, so if we did that here it would be in about nine months in December 2024.”
According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin’s monthly RSI currently stands at 60.99.
BTC is trading at $57,933 at the time of writing, up 1.3% over the past 24 hours.
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Generated image: Midjourney