Travis Kling, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Ikigai Asset Management, proposes a direct correlation between the outcomes of the US presidential election and the Bitcoin price. Through
Why September 10th could be crucial for Bitcoin
Kling’s analysis depends on several key political events and their corresponding impact on the gambling markets, which he believes are reflective of broader economic expectations. “NFA. I’m often wrong. Bitcoin has likely traded with a correlation to Trump’s victory. And that makes sense to me. BTC/crypto will be MUCH better off under a Trump administrator,” Kling said.
He highlighted the perceived shortcomings of the Democratic National Convention and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s expected endorsement of Trump. as pivotal moments that could drive the Bitcoin price. “It seems like things aren’t going particularly well for the DNC. RFK was expected to support Trump on Friday. These factors are showing up on Polymarket and if RFK chooses Trump, I think Poly will expand even further,” Kling said. He expects these developments to reach their peak on September 10.
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This is when the first debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will take place in Philadelphia. “It’s Trump’s place to lose IMO. If he shows up for Kamala like he showed up for Biden, the polls/Poly should widen even further.”
Kling expects the Bitcoin price to rise towards $72,000. “Given that BTC is trading with Trump, it would make sense to me that all of this would lead to BTC being back at the top of this six-month range,” Kling speculated.
However, he also warned against too much optimism. Kling isn’t sure if the BTC price can break outside the trading range established in mid-March before the election unless the polls/Poly REALLY widen for Trump. Love it or hate it, this election has major consequences for us, and short-term price action is just one aspect of that.”
It is striking that not everyone shares Kling’s opinion. Matthew Sigel, head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, provided a contrasting perspective. Sigel stated: “Bitcoin is not currently trading on Trump’s odds, although I expect that to change.
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FalconX, a prominent crypto prime broker, also recently conducted an analysis examining the correlation between Bitcoin prices and Trump’s electoral chances on Polymarket – a platform for betting on political outcomes. From June 1 to August 15, their findings indicated no clear correlation, underscoring that other factors may have influenced Bitcoin’s price more significantly. These factors include the German government’s sell-off of 50,000 BTC and liquidations by former Mount Gox customers.
Undoubtedly, a coalition of Trump and Kennedy Jr. are extremely optimistic about Bitcoin. While it increases Trump’s chances of winning the US elections, another strong Bitcoin supporter would join the Trump campaign. Kennedy Jr. has, like Trump, advocated for substantial government involvement in Bitcoin, proposing that the Treasury Department should purchase 550 Bitcoins daily until it accumulates 4 million BTC in reserves.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $61,067.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com