Bitcoins [BTC] The latest decline has steadily reshaped the market structure as more recent buyers have fallen below their cost base. When BTC fell from $76.6k to $72.9k, the total loss offer increased from 7.75 million BTC to 8.33 million BTC.
This added roughly 580,000 BTC to the underwater supply, indicating heavy accumulation occurred near local highs before momentum weakened.
As a result, the psychological pressure on short- and medium-term holders continues to increase. Currently, $73,000 represents the average entry point for one- to three-month holders and serves as the market’s first line of defense.
If this level fails, the focus could quickly shift to $69,000, with 18-month to 2-year holders maintaining their average cost basis.
Meanwhile, resistance has emerged around $79,000 and then $84,000, reflecting the cost base of more recent cohorts. Any recovery attempt could mean heavier selling as underwater holders look for break-even exits.
However, if BTC successfully regains $79,000, it would indicate that demand is absorbing the overhead supply, potentially easing pressure and improving sentiment in these captive cohorts.
Negative spot flows strengthen Bitcoin’s supply surplus
The pressure that is increasing among underwater holders is now directly reflected in the behavior of the spot market. Previously, rising unrealized losses increased the risk of excess supply.
Now Spot Volume Delta remains firmly negative, confirming that many participants continue to sell into the available liquidity.
As BTC retreated from the low $80,000 region to $73,000, aggressive sell orders consistently outweighed buyer activity.
This imbalance became increasingly visible with repeated negative delta values, which often fell below -$200 million during the sharp drop in February and briefly approached -$600 million.
As a result, demand has struggled to absorb the steady supply in the market. Although occasional buying sprees briefly pushed the delta into the $100 million to $200 million range, this recovery has been sustained.
As a result, relief rallies repeatedly stalled before building stronger upward momentum. Nevertheless, the continued selling pressure is no guarantee of a new crisis. If buyers become convinced again and absorb the overhead supply, spot flows may gradually stabilize.
Until then, the negative Spot Volume Delta suggests that sellers maintain control over liquidity, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to further consolidation and fragile recovery attempts.