XRP is in a compression phase, and technical analysis indicates that the price action could be approaching a point where patience turns to panic before the price finally becomes clear.
The chart setup of XRP is full of uncertainty, but there is one crucial support level that could decide XRP’s next move, and another price level that it must overcome for a bullish confirmation.
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XRP’s Expiring Bdrive away Wedge pattern
XRP’s price action has been on a downward path from lower highs since the beginning of the year, extending to a correction since the July 2025 peak at $3.65. This price promotion, according to technical analysis performed by Popular crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has led to the formation of a bearish, wider wedge on the higher time frame XRP chart.
A falling, expanding wedge pattern often appears during late-stage accumulation phases, with rising volatility contained within downside limits rather than signaling outright weakness.
“This is NOT a random formation,” the analyst wrote. “Historically, these structures often produce final capitulation, THEN violent expansion.”
According to Egrag Crypto’s chart, the formation has a 57% chance of an upward resolution, versus a 43% chance of a further downtrend. The current price action supports a downward move. This is why EGRAG described the current phase as a short-term bearish compression, even though the larger macro structure is still bullish unless the structure breaks down completely.
XRP price chart. Source: @egragcrypto On X
The levels that define everything
The key downside level on the chart is $1.11. Egrag noted this as a crucial support, and it acts as the line between normal volatility within the structure and a more dangerous collapse. XRP is currently trading around $1.36 and lower than the moving averages including the EMA20 at $1,391, the EMA50 at $1,404, and the EMA200 at $1,684; the distance to that level of support is not comfortable.
A loss of $1.11 would put XRP in a weaker technical position and lead to an extreme flush scenario of 70% to $0.32. That level is not the analyst’s base case, but it does show the kind of liquidity wave that could occur if the falling widening wedge breaks in the wrong direction.
The bullish side of the analysis will only begin if XRP confirms a move above $3. The analyst also noted that a weekly or monthly recovery above $2.65 to $3 would change everything, as that would mean XRP has broken back above the upper resistance area that contained the widening wedge.
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The CLARITY Act, who cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 and awaiting a Senate vote, could bring in another $4 billion to $8 billion in ETF inflows XRP. This is the kind of capital movement that could realistically trigger an XRP price retest of that zone.
Should XRP reclaim and hold the $3, Egrag’s expansion goals are stretching from $7 to $11.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView