Compared to early May, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization is not as strong. The value of the global cryptocurrency market at the time of publication was $2.56 trillion.
At the same time, the altcoin market capitalization reached $1.097 trillion.
However, the CoinMarketCap altcoin index stood at 38 at the time of writing, indicating that the altcoin season has little headroom as Bitcoin [BTC] season is still going well.
However, zooming out shows that the cryptocurrency market is in a bullish zone as Bitcoin has returned above the $75,000 price level.
What’s behind this rebound?
After days of geopolitical pressure, US President Donald Trump’s announcement that a peace deal with Iran was “substantially negotiated” calmed market concerns and caused a spike in the cryptocurrency market.
Interestingly, altcoins outperformed Bitcoin in this case. This indicated that traders were returning to riskier assets after headlines about the peace deal allayed their immediate fears.
Part of the recovery was driven by AI-related tokens. World currency [WLD] rose 11.7%, and NEAR Protocol [NEAR] increased by 17.7% in one day and by more than 58% in a week.
Zcash [ZEC] increased by 7.1% over the course of a day, indicating that privacy-linked assets have also increased. In the same time frame, other major altcoins such as Ondo emerged [ONDO] recovered by 15%, and Hyperliquid [HYPE] recovered by 12.3%.
Furthermore, this jump also came after Bitcoin Pizza Day.
Even with all this momentum, the altcoin index is still below the 75 level that would signal the start of altcoin season.
Then vs. now market sentiment surrounding altcoin season
A well-known analyst, Michaël van de Poppe, said:
This is a very different situation than at the end of April.
According to what AMBCrypto previously reported, analysts at the time noted that the price action resembled the accumulation phase prior to previous altseasons.
Therefore, they predicted that a significant altcoin rally could occur in 2026 or 2027 if the pattern repeats.
Indeed, there is also a spike in the storage of such coins in the ETF space. HYPE ETF’s inflows surpassed Ethereum [ETH] on five out of six days and Bitcoin on three out of six days.
Additionally, asset managers Grayscale and VanEck have amended their S-1 filings with the SEC.
What do the other on-chain metrics refer to?
However, the average 14-day correlation of altcoins with bitcoin, which tracks bitcoin’s price movement, indicates that altcoin season has not yet arrived. By the yardstick, the crypto market continues to behave as if Bitcoin is the main driver and altcoins are mainly passengers.
Additionally, a chart showing the percentage of altcoins trading close to their all-time lows supported the idea that while Bitcoin may be doing well, the average altcoin is still having a terrible time.
Final summary
- The overall crypto market recovered after President Trump’s announcement, but altcoins gained more.
- However, altcoin season and other on-chain statistics suggested that altcoin season is not yet in sight.